A view from Stephen Foster

Politics of the Media: enemies within for Gordon Brown?

Apparently David Muir, the WPP man brought in by Downing Street policy supremo Stephen Carter, has been amusing himself by conducting focus groups, asking the warm white wine and Twiglets brigade what David Cameron reminds them of.

A car salesman? Estate agent? PR man? Well he used to be one of those for Carlton Television's ever-lovable Michael Green.

The purpose of this exercise is to find a chink in Dave's armour, and no doubt there are a few.

But what would the same group make of David's boss Gordon Brown? Have they been asked?

Undertaker? Debt collector? Bank manager who's not renewing your mortgage?

There may be almost two years to go before Gordon has to call the next general election (which is what Carter and co are supposed to be counting on as they try to launch a fight back) but it's looking increasingly unlikely that he'll be given the opportunity.

The truth is that politics is moving too fast now for considered marketing strategies to make any difference -- one act of misfortune (another Northern Rock for example, or some dingbat civil servant leaving a computer file on a train) could be enough to finish this government.

As it is, it faces a humiliating by-election defeat in Crewe and Nantwich this week (it could survive a narrow defeat, governments nearly always lose by-elections, but not a big one) and then the self-imposed torment of a Parliamentary vote on 42-days detention for terrorist suspects.

So what do Messrs Carter, Muir and the rest of the army of consultants and special advisers make of all this?

After all, advertising and marketing types are hardly renowned for strapping themselves to the mast and going down with the client ship (their clients are always ready to ditch them on a whim or less, so they can hardly be blamed for this).

In such dire circumstances the prudent thing to do is devise an exit strategy (which may include finding a client with better prospects).

Which probably means removing Gordon Brown to a safe haven (from New Labour's point of view) sooner rather than later.

Such as the World Bank, where he can pursue his interest in international development and renewal without handing the Tories votes?

Of course Brown and his advisers may turn things round to a degree -- his best hope is probably the Liberals making a comeback (there are already a few tentative signs of this, although not in Crewe) and the hung Parliament scenario regaining ground.

But with big dollops of pain cascading down on consumers in the form of higher and fewer mortgages, higher food and energy prices and an ominous increase in unemployment, there's little chance of Brown leading Labour to another resounding victory.

And it's certainly not lost on Carter that someone like Work and Pensions Secretary James Purnell would have a better chance of striking a deal with Nick Clegg than Gordon ever would.

It's just a question of whether Brown goes sooner or later (after an election). But he may find that the smartly-polished Church's of his hand-picked team in Downing Street speed him on his way.