Gordon Brown is still unpacking his boxes at 10 Downing Street, but he'll soon settle in to his new role. After a decade looking on enviously from the Treasury, he finally has the job he craved. But if he was hoping for an enthusiastic welcome, he may be in for a nasty surprise - he inherits from Tony Blair an electorate whose mood is confused and frequently angry.
Those are the findings of a national research project conducted by McCann Erickson. Setting out to identify the zeitgeist as the Blair decade gives way to Brown's premiership, it found a nation racked with self-doubt and a populace seeking comfort in their immediate surroundings rather than the institutions of state. For brands, this moody nation presents new challenges.
The project involved a poll of more than 1000 adult Britons, as well as focus group research with groups of neighbours from five streets across Britain. It found that the mood surrounding the new government is very different to that which greeted the Blair administration. The sense of national optimism that characterised the late-90s - the new government, Britpop, Britart, Cool Britannia - has dissipated. Despite a strong economy, a sense of disillusion permeates the nation; 67% believe the new millennium 'has been a disappointment for Britain so far'. When asked to describe the mood of the country, the top six adjectives chosen were negative: disenchanted, uncertain, disappointed, indifferent, confused and angry.
It is not all bad news for Brown - when asked what makes them happiest about Britain at the moment, the most popular answer was the change in prime minister. But there are several issues the new government must face up to. There is frustration at the 'nanny state' symbolised by CCTV cameras. There is mounting concern surrounding national issues such as immigration and terrorism. And an astonishing 83% of respondents agreed that 'people seem generally angrier nowadays'.
When asked what causes this fury, the reason most cited was race relations, an issue that has grown in importance since the turn of the millennium. This finding is supported by Ipsos-MORI, which found that 37% of Britons believe immigration and race relations are among the top issues facing the country, up from just 3% in 1997. Linked to this is a growing frustration at the decline of British identity - an issue politicians have sought to address through calls for a Britishness Day.
McCann Erickson found these feelings were broadly consistent across the regions, though there were variations: Scotland was more positive than average about the state of the UK, while the Midlands and the North were the most miserable.
Yet there is a disconnect between perception and reality. One of the report's most profound findings is that people's views of the state of the nation do not match their views of their own lives. When asked, 60% said they were positive about their current mood, and 56% made the same claim for their friends, but only 27% are positive about the mood of their local community, and just 9% are upbeat about the outlook of the country. Interestingly, older age groups tend to be happiest with their own lives (66% say they are positive), but are the least upbeat about the mood of Britain (5%).
Bobby Duffy, deputy managing director of Ipsos-MORI's Social Research Institute, has seen a similar trend. 'Ask people about Britain and they are pessimistic; ask about themselves and they're optimistic - it is the exact opposite to how it was under Margaret Thatcher,' he says. 'There is a perception gap between the personal and the national in areas such as crime and healthcare, driven by what people read in the media and a lack of trust in what the government tells us.'
Duffy argues that this situation is complicated further by people's ability to hold apparently contradictory views. For example, there has been a growing feeling that consumers can 'have it all', yet at the same time people are concerned by issues such as sustainability and their carbon footprint. Paradoxically, both views can be held by the same person at the same time.
Amid this maelstrom of confusion and contradiction, consumers are retreating into areas in which they feel safe and optimistic - family, friends and colleagues. These personal networks will continue to grow in importance, according to Nikki Crumpton, executive planning director at McCann Erickson, who argues that consumers are 'insulating themselves from everyday life by thinking small'.
Against this backdrop, brands that seem to offer stability are in a good position. When asked which brands they would miss if they emigrated, respondents plumped for classics such as Marmite and McVitie's - products that offer reassurance and continuity. Brands including Bisto have taken advantage of the situation, with its 'Aah night' ads recognising the importance of time spent with family, as well as the pressures that can limit it.
While the issues that upset or frustrate people are at a 'macro' level - terrorism or climate change, for example - the things they are happiest with are closer to home. Crumpton believes this current consumer mood means they will not tolerate 'big' brands that distance themselves from the customer and that they associate with the 'macro' world. Consumers are instead looking for brands that are authentic and friendly. So for supermarkets, for example, the emphasis is on local products or, in the case of Asda, its store staff. Crumpton argues that brands such as Innocent and Apple have succeeded by understanding the personal connections they need to make with consumers and the tone of voice they must adopt; categories such as financial services and cars may have more work to do.
These findings do not mean there is no future in mass-market brands. But to succeed in Brown's Britain, they must reject the temptation to assume their size will be something to shout about. 'Big brands can still work, but they have to act in a small way,' concludes Crumpton. 'It's about humility. Brands have to connect in real ways or give something back.'
LET DOWN BY LABOUR
The wave of optimism that swept Britain in the latter half of the 90s has given way to disappointment. The Labour government has, in many people's eyes, failed to deliver, with 67% believing that the new millennium 'has been a disappointment for Britain so far', and 78% that the government 'is not doing a good job of making people feel better'.
LACK OF RESPECT
The government's much-touted Respect agenda does not seem to be changing people's attitudes. When asked what makes them sad about Britain, 'loss of respect in society' was mentioned by 64% of respondents - well ahead of issues such as war (46%) and debt (33%).
ANGRY ISLAND
When asked what made them most angry about Britain, the most mentioned factor was race relations, cited by 58% of respondents. Second was crime (52%), followed by terrorism (49%) and the cost of living (47%). The war in Iraq came eighth.
FEAR FACTOR
Bird flu, terrorism and climate change have caused unease, with 72% of respondents believing that 'Britain is more unstable now than it was at the start of the 21st century'.
POWER TO THE PEOPLE OR A NEW CONTROL FREAK?
When asked what was currently making them most happy about Britain, 32% mentioned the change in prime minister - not a huge proportion, but enough to make it the most common answer. Second was a good economy, mentioned by 20%. As this is something Brown can easily associate himself with, this finding should be good news for our new leader. Less positive for Brown is the finding that 43% said standards in public services made them angry, while 41% were angered by politics in general. Brown's early talk of safeguarding civil liberties and handing more power to the people may be spot-on. The focus group research revealed unease with a government seeking more control over people's lives. CCTV cameras were mentioned frequently in this context, while the focus group in Sheffield talked of a 'do-gooder' society that made them feel uncomfortable.
ENDURING FAVOURITES
Brands that build an emotional attachment with consumers will win out in Brown's Britain. When asked which brands they would miss if they left Britain, the top five were traditional names representing stability. Heinz was cited by 20%, followed by Marmite (12%), McVitie's (10%), Bisto (8%) and Hovis (5%).
HOME TRUTHS
Life is becoming less certain at a personal as well as a national level, with 22% of respondents saying they wished their home life was more stable - a figure that rose to 40% in the 18- to 24-year-old demographic. Debt was frequently mentioned in the qualitative research, as was the inability to get on the property ladder.
IDENTITY CRISIS
Against a backdrop of devolution and immigration, 53% of respondents agreed with the statement 'I don't know what it means to be British'. These feelings were strongest among Britons in the lowest social demographic.