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Overall display advertising spend is set to expand this year following a period of double-digit growth in 2021, although forecasts show a less optimistic outlook for press, out of home and cinema. 

Total UK display adspend could reach £17.86bn in 2022, according to the latest figures from Enders Analysis.

The positive forecast represents a 9% uplift on the estimated £16.35bn spent on UK display ads in 2021. 

The headline figure amounts to a significant increase on pre-pandemic ad outlay in 2019, when total spend reached £14.38bn. 

“Fuelled by savings piles accumulated under work-from-home [guidelines] and asset price inflation, the strong recovery of private consumption in H2 2021 from the depths of successive lockdowns drove spectacular growth in UK display advertising,” the report from Enders Analysis stated.

“Private consumption, now also impacted by CPI inflation, will trend upwards in 2022 and power display advertising growth of over 9%.”

Despite the upbeat outlook for display adspend this year, the latest wave of Covid cases and the Omicron variant could affect confidence in the coming months, the report warned. 

“The sunny uplands we forecast for 2022 could rapidly cloud depending on the course of Omicron as we face year three of the pandemic," it added. 

The figures show some clear winners in the display ad space in the past year, with TV including VOD, radio and pure play online, all benefitting from the government’s "stay at home" messaging to attract a boom in adspend. 

Major events, including the highly anticipated Euro 2020 football tournament held last summer, also helped fuel the explosion, as broadcaster ITV reported a huge lift in ad revenue in July, when it covered England’s march to the final. 

In November, ITV announced it was on track to report its highest ever annual ad revenue as figures indicated a 30% rise to £1.35bn.

The year-on-year boost for these media showed an uptick on 2019 figures with TV adspend estimated to be up almost 10% and radio up almost 2%. 

Not surprisingly, pure-play online is estimated to outperform all media in the period 2019-2021, with adspend surging 45% on that platform, with a further 14% increase forecast for 2022 as spend hits almost £8.76bn. 

The impact on the wider ad industry is already noticeable, with agencies including MediaCom North reporting its largest year of revenue and headcount growth, after a surge in new-business wins in 2021 from clients such as Webuyanycar.com.

Press, OOH and cinema were hit the hardest during repeated lockdowns as people stayed at home, leading to a raft of consequences, including London’s Evening Standard newspaper axing a third of its workforce as print ad revenues plummeted. 

Although adspend recovery is forecast across these channels in 2022, total revenues are still set to be well below pre-pandemic figures. 

Display adspend for press, including online, is forecast at £1.57bn for this year, down from £1.88bn in 2019, while cinema is forecast at £159m, almost half the £299m revenue achieved in 2019. 

While OOH is forecast to expand 25% year on year to £1.14bn from £907m in 2021, that figure is still a massive decline on the £1.3bn the channel achieved in 2019. 

Sectors including travel, automotive and retail declined during the pandemic and remain below their adspend shares, while those that showed resilience include food and drink, electronics and computers and DIY. 

Government spending on advertising also skyrocketed due to its public health messaging, and is forecast to remain buoyant in 2022.

The dramatic spike in government adspend in 2020 resulted from the Cabinet Office and Public Health England (PHE) adding a combined £200m spend gross of agency fees in their push on Covid messaging. 

A staggering 335% year-on-year increase in 2020 on the previous year is estimated to slow to 26% growth in 2021.

But high levels of Covid-related adspend will continue in 2022, with a 4% increase forecast to take Cabinet Office and PHE ad spend to £340m, almost six times the £60m spent by the departments in 2019. 

“The Omicron emergency will sustain strong expenditure in Q1, but this should fall significantly by summer if infections come back down,” Enders Analysis noted.

The Enders report comes as the latest Advertising Association/Warc Expenditure Report shows total UK adspend is due to soar to £29.3bn in 2021, higher than the predicted £27.8bn earlier this year, with record figures expected for Christmas.