Among the 36 new shows on offer to Americans this autumn is NBC's take on 'Coupling', BBC2's spicy sitcom about a group of thirtysomething couples. Other newcomers include 'Cold Case' on CBS, in which detectives attempt to unravel old, unsolved cases, and 'Two and a Half Men', a family comedy starring Charlie Sheen and Jon Cryer.
'Coupling' is one of the first British shows to be remade largely unchanged, with scripts being used almost wholesale. NBC is hoping that it might be a new 'Friends' and is backing it by scheduling it immediately after its other hit 'Will & Grace'.
Media buyers have seen nothing in the schedules that qualifies for watercooler television and it is being widely predicted that the flops will far exceed the hits in the notoriously tough US TV market.
Rino Scanzoni, chief investment officer at Mediaedge:cia, told the New York Times: "The list of casualties will far exceed the list of hits. Most new shows probably have a one in 10 chance of survival."
It is not all bleak for the networks, however, as a crop of shows with provocative themes promise to light up screens and audience figures. Fox will broadcast 'Skin', in which the lead character is Los Angeles' biggest porn producer, while ABC will air 'It's All Relative', a sitcom about a family with two gay fathers.
The surest prediction for this season's new shows, however, seems to be for 'Whoopi', a sitcom starring Whoopi Goldberg as a wise-cracking owner of a small, downtown New York hotel. The media industry is widely expecting its demise before any of the other 35 new shows.
"'Whoopi' will be the first", said Stacey Shepatin, senior vice-president and director for national broadcast at Interpublic Group agency Hill, Holliday, Connors, Cosmopulos in Boston.
Despite doubts about the new shows, the outlook for the US TV advertising market remains positive. ZenithOptimedia announced this week that it has revised its forecast for worldwide TV spend in 2003, largely on the back of the buoyant state of the US market.
Other shows being tipped for the axe are ABC sitcom 'Married to the Kellys', LA Sheriff department drama '10-8' and anti-terror drama 'Threat Matrix', which refers to the report the US president is given each morning, and over on Fox, 'Tru Calling', starring Eliza Dushku, who played Faith in 'Buffy the Vampire Slayer', in the premonition-based crime drama.
According to Advertising, Age NBC has the top three most expensive shows for ad spots. In its last season, 'Friends' comes top again with a 30-second spot selling for an average of $473,500, up from $455,700 last year; second is 'Will & Grace' at $414,500; and third is NBC's 'ER' at $404,814 for a 30-second spot.
Others in the top 10 include: CBS's 'Survivor' at $390,367 down 6.8%, showing the waning interest in reality TV; 'Coupling', the only new programme in the top 10 at $316,400; 'Crime Scene Investigation' on CBS at $310,324; 'The Simpsons' on Fox at $296,440; and '24', also on Fox, at $292,200 -- a jump of 58.3% on last year.
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