At the beginning of the year, Coen predicted that advertising would rise by 5% during 2003, but has revised his forecast downwards to $247.7bn (£147.4bn). It is the second time in six months that he has cut his forecast for advertising growth in 2003.
Coen, who has been analysing US adspend trends since 1948, predicts the second half of the year will be better. Coen said growth would be fuelled by national advertisers in the motoring, movie, restaurant chains and sellers of cosmetics, drugs, food and toiletries.
"There will be a little less growth in the first half, but a return to strong growth in the second half," Coen said.
He blamed the war in Iraq and the build-up to it for slowing growth in advertising levels and said that the uncertainty surrounding the build-up to the war did more damage than the war itself.
"It had more effect before it happened than probably while it was on," he said.
Coen, senior vice-president and forecasting director at Universal McCann, is predicting that national media will see faster growth than local media. He said that television would rise by 4.7%; newspapers would be up by 5.5%; and radio advertising revenue would be up by 4.2%.
Internationally, Coen said that 2003 ad revenues would hit $222.1bn, up 4% from his revised figure of $213.6bn in 2002. He said he was expecting stronger growth from countries including China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines and South Korea.
He said these countries would make up for slow growth in countries like the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Japan, where growth is predicted to be slower.
Looking to 2004, Coen has made an initial forecast for a gain of 5.6% because like others he expects the Olympics and US presidential election to boost spending. If correct, it will be the largest gain since the last US presidential election and Olympics in 2000.
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