ZenithOptimedia, the media planning and buying giant, says US adspend will increase by 2.7% to $148.3bn (£89.7bn), but in Europe the figure is likely to fall by between 0.7% and 2.6% in five major markets: France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK.
ZenithOptimedia's survey, published twice a year, finds that advertising growth will increase over the next three years, with a global rise of 3% this year to $324.5bn, but that the outlook in Europe is uncertain.
In its last survey, ZenithOptimedia predicted that UK adspend would fall by 1.4%, blaming in part the shift of advertising budgets out of ITV. It continues its downbeat prediction for the UK television industry, saying: "The TV is notably unaffected by US upfront enthusiasm, having endured the worst share loss of any medium since 1999, with no prospect of restoring its real revenue."
This time, ZenithOptimedia says that the UK is condemning itself to sluggish economic growth by creating too many public-sector jobs, which, it says, are unproductive. The report says: "Consumer spending-power is therefore eroding, and consumer demand is consequently expected to slow from 2.8% growth this year to 1.3% next."
The latest US upfront television season was very strong for network TV, with reports that $9.3bn had been pledged.
ZenithOptimedia's findings regarding US adspend figures are relatively pessimistic, when compared with those predicted this month by both forecasting guru Bob Coen and TNS Media Intelligence/CMR.
Coen, who is chief forecaster at rival media buying firm Universal McCann, is predicting a 4.6% rise, a figure down from the 5% he had predicted at the beginning of the year. TNS Media Intelligence/CMR's figures suggest a 4.3% increase -- an improvement on what it had originally forecast.
In Asia, ZenithOptimedia predicts growth of 6.6%, despite the outbreak of SARS, with China, Taiwan and South Korea all tipped for strong rises, while Hong Kong is expected to see a $275m fall in adspend.
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