It seems we have an innate tendency to support the underdog. From Eddie the Eagle (the British Olympic ski-jumper who famously finished last at the 1988 Games) to Eric the Eel (the Olympic swimmer from Equatorial Guinea who struggled to complete 100m), audiences and the media love gallant losers.
However, there is a wide gulf between supporting a plucky trier and actually joining them in their futile endeavour. LessWrong, the human rationality blog, uses a caveman analogy to make this point. If Zug is winning his battle with Urk for supremacy over the tribe, those cavemen with genes that predisposed them to support the underdog would join Urk's faction and be wiped out.
Support does not imply adoption, and this is something Microsoft might reflect on as it proceeds with the $100m launch of Bing, its new search engine.
There is no doubt that Bing looks good. Results are presented well, with an interesting preview tool that appears when your mouse hovers over a listing. Video results also preview in-page.
According to a senior Microsoft executive, the engine differentiates itself by delivering outstanding results in shopping, health, travel and local categories. Indeed, the quality of these results has been praised by observers.
However, this is also a first area of concern. These categories are of wide interest, but if the site is to become habit-forming, it must also be able to deliver deeply, and allow users to make very specific queries.
This is a key behavioural change that has been affecting search over the past few years, as the average number of words in a query has grown.
Several commentators have observed that Bing does well on broad issues, but is less robust when it comes to niche questions. Google estimates that 25% of queries are unique; serving these is a critical test of a search engine's ability. Search for 'Bing TV spot' on Bing's own video search, and it's not even on the first results page; search on Google video, it's number four.
There's a more significant challenge for Bing: is it 'good' enough?
As one expert notes, Ask.com offers the most accurate results, but has only half of Microsoft's share of the search market. Search behaviour is driven by habit and convenience, and it's not enough to be better at some things. There has to be a compelling reason to change, and that's a high bar to leap - especially since so much of Google's success comes from its long-term distribution arrangements.
Almost 30% of Google's ad revenue is paid out to AdSense partners, who display the Google search panel on their sites. These arrangements constantly remind users of the Google brand, forming a barrier to entry.
It is also important to examine how defensible Bing's innovations are. Microsoft claims that, as the challenger, it can afford to take risks with the user experience and monetisation that Google cannot. However, this ignores the fact that Google is always trying new approaches, diverting a tiny percentage of its traffic to the test versions, and gauging success in a risk-controlled environment. Thus, Google does not need to bet the farm to make changes to the experience.
Bing represents a huge commitment for Microsoft and a huge leap forward for the company in search capability. It could even increase its share, assuming Google doesn't replicate the good bits.
However, commercial success will require a step-change in scale. Many advertisers don't use Microsoft because they reckon they have the market covered with Google and Yahoo! There is still a big gap between Bing as plucky trier and Bing as contender. Bridging that gap is what is needed to turn 'support' into ad revenue.
Andrew Walmsley is co-founder of i-level
30 seconds on Microsoft Bing
- Bing was unveiled by Microsoft chief executive Steve Ballmer on 28 May at a conference in San Diego. It went live on 3 June.
- The name was originally inspired by the Friends character, Chandler Bing.
- This is Microsoft's fourth attempt at creating a successful search engine brand. MSN search, rolled out in 1998, was followed by Windows Live Search in 2006. This became Live Search the following year.
- The image on the Bing homepage changes daily.
- In China, it is called bi ying, which means 'very certain to answer' in Chinese.
- While it is already available, the UK-specific site is still under development. Bing will not be the subject of a marketing campaign here until this process is complete at the end of the year.
- The New York Times has noted that Bing can also be an unfortunate acronym – for 'But it's not Google'.
- Microsoft's initial target is not Google, but rather the second-most popular search engine, Yahoo!