The latest set of ABC results has done little to calm the nerves of the publishing industry. Traditional men's magazines continue to slide, while the women's weekly market has suffered from consumers cutting back on multiple purchases. Those sectors tied to declining industries such as the property market have also suffered a hit.
Jackie Newcombe, managing director of IPC Southbank, believes that the outlook for the industry is difficult to predict. 'The consumer bubble has burst and in the past four months there has been an over-correction,' she says.
This view is shared by Anthony Gibson-Watt, buying director at Zed Media, who says trading in the first three months of the year has been shocking. 'Clients are nervous and it is only a few bold brands such as VW that have actively increased their share of voice,' he adds.
Confined to the margins
Despite the downturn, strong editorial brands have held their own. 'It is not one of the best periods for the industry,' admits Peter Phippen, managing director of BBC Magazines. 'But in times of recession, consumers tend to gravitate toward strong brands.'
As a consequence, magazines on the margins will find themselves frozen out if they refuse to play ball with the demands of media buyers. Rob Lynam, press account director at Mediaedge:cia, claims many titles are facing the axe from schedules. 'Marketers, like consumers, will vote with their feet and only those magazines which are must-haves will stay on the schedules,' he warns.
Stephen Quinn, publishing director of Vogue, insists that top-quality titles - such as his own, Elle and Marie Claire - are coping. 'The fact is that these titles are holding up well despite the downturn in the economy,' he says. However, he adds that the last quarter brought a decline in margins and sales at the flagship stores, which, in turn, led to an adjustment in marketing spend in the first quarter of this year.
This means that the volume of ad pages has fallen too. As a result, publishers have cut back on pagination preferring to run smaller edition sizes, while retaining the price premium.
When Quinn joined Vogue at the end of 1991 the title had lost 500 pages of advertising in a year as the recession of the early 90s took it toll. 'Our line is to defend our rates stoutly - so our page rate will be intact when we come out of the downturn,' he says.
Discount dilemma
Inevitably publishers claim that once rates dip, media agencies will fight tooth and nail to prevent them coming up again.
Global brands are now coming to expect heavy discounting from their media agencies. The example of the US, where some of the most premium titles have accommodated advertisers by slashing rates, is not one that many publishers in the UK wish to follow.
'If revenues are challenged, then obviously you have to look at costs, but you have to do so in a way that doesn't damage your brand,' says Newcombe.
Thankfully, it is not all doom and gloom. The fallout from the credit crunch may actually benefit titles in the long term, according to Quinn. 'The fact is, nine out of 10 women don't buy luxury brands at all, but nine out of 10 women who buy glossy magazines do,' he claims.
This 'survival of the fittest' attitude is echoed by Yvonne Ossman, UK publisher of The Economist, which posted a 3.1% year-on-year increase in circulation. 'People want a sense of security and trust. If you are confident in what you do and you back it up, it's possible to grow in the current climate.'
This is the plan at The Economist, which is not asking marketers alone to increase their investment in marketing, but is doing so itself.
Privately, media agencies complain of overstretched titles which offer advertisers nothing new and underpin their circulations with bulks and covermounts.
There is little doubt that some weaker titles will exit the market. Despite this, there are still examples of relatively new brands thriving, such as IPC's Look, while the enduring value of titles such as Vogue serve as a reminder that they have been through it all before and will go through it all again.