Healthy eating is the current obsession, but as people dissect food labels and monitor their GDAs in an effort to limit calorie intake, there is one sector of the food industry where such scrutiny is pointless. Most products in the chilled-dessert market will carry 'red-light' labels or a have high GDA rating for sugar and fat.
However, rather than adversely affecting sales, it appears that consumers need a treat outlet amid the tight policing of their eating. Chilled desserts are pure and simple indulgence, and shoppers continue to want an element of this in their lives.
Between 2003 and 2007 the value of chilled-dessert sales grew by 14%. In 2008 they are expected to grow by 4% to reach £1bn, according to Mintel. In line with trends seen across the food market, and despite the economic slowdown, premium lines are performing well, helping to build value.
Gu and its sister brand Fru have proved interesting entrants in this sector, introducing upmarket brand credentials to an area often left to own-label. Their arrival and subsequent NPD has boosted interest in the market, and they appeal to affluent shoppers unwilling to compromise on quality. Other brands in a similar niche are Farmhouse Fare and The Serious Food Company.
A further development is a revival in interest in large-format desserts for sharing. While the media often focuses on the decline of the sit-down 'family meal', in some quarters it has enjoyed a renaissance.
Bigger desserts, from fruit pies and flans to full-sized cakes, are aimed at this occasion. They include desserts eaten cold as well as those that require heating. The latter category has shown the most prodigious growth, rising 18% since 2006 and now accounting for 28% of the market.
The chilled-desserts sector also includes chilled-pot variants such as trifles, mousses, and cheesecakes, but excludes yoghurts and fromage frais. The chilled-pot category accounts for the biggest share of sales in the sector, but its growth is slow.
Competition to the chilled-desserts sector comes from yoghurts, ice cream, and fresh fruit. As cooking from scratch gains popularity, home-baked desserts may oust shop-bought varieties in some households.
Frozen food is another threat. It has emerged from hard times recently, so frozen desserts may therefore benefit from this change in consumer perception. They also score well on convenience, as they can be stored in the freezer until use.
While premium chilled desserts are performing strongly, organic remains a niche area. However, there are promising developments, such as dairy manufacturer Yeo Valley expanding into chilled-pot desserts with mousses and layered puddings, and The Serious Food Company rolling out an organic range.
Although shoppers are paying more attention to their food, there has been a decline in sales of low-calorie and low-fat products. The exception to this has been the Weight Watchers brand, which recorded a 25% increase in sales in 2007. The company is also likely to expand its range of licensed chilled desserts with Greencore.
While some brands are innovating and developing their portfolios, the market continues to be dominated by own-label. Cadbury is the leading brand, but it accounts for only 11% of the chilled-pot desserts market.
Chilled desserts are popular among 25- to 34-year-olds, a group set to grow in the future. More challenging is the forecast rise in 45- to 50-year-olds and over-65s, who are not frequent consumers in this category.
Thanks to the shift toward premium brands, Mintel predicts the sector will be worth £1.27bn by 2013, a 23% increase on 2008. This growth is expected to come despite a 2% dip in volume over the same period.
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