Media buyers are expecting a fall of 2.8 percentage points between 2004, when it was 22.8%, and 2007. The figure is an average and therefore masks differences of individual opinion, with the lowest prediction for 2007 at 17.5% and the highest at 22.5%.
If the lowest prediction comes true, ITV1 will have lost a fifth of its audience in three years. Ten of the top 15 agencies made predictions.
For BBC One and BBC Two combined, the average prediction was a 4.1 point fall to 30.5%, for Channel 4 it was a 0.8 point fall to 9%, and for Five it was no change from its 6.6% share.
Multichannels combined are expected to grow their share from 26.3% to 33.9%. In addition, three significant but anonymous TV agencies expected Freeview to be installed in more households than Sky by 2008, although the rest disagreed.
The consensus figure was that Freeview and Sky would be in 17m households by 2008. The lowest prediction was 15.7m and the highest was 20.3m.
Researcher MediaTel chose 2007 because it is the last year before the start of digital TV switchover in 2008. It also asked the buyers to elaborate on whether the government's plans for complete switchover by 2012 were realistically achievable.
This question divided buyers into two camps, with the number of replies from the sceptics outnumbering those who thought it could be done on time.
One sceptic said: "Too many barriers to be overcome for complete switchover by 2012. Cost of converting every set in every household is immense and there is much consumer resistance to overcome. Impossible to predict actual completion date."
Providing the opposite view, another buyer said: "Given penetration should be 75%-80% by 2008, then dates can be achieved coupled with the appropriate incentives and a following wind."
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