AOL Time Warner set to cut <br>earnings forecasts

NEW YORK - AOL Time Warner is expected to trim its earnings forecasts for 2001 and 2002 on Monday, when it holds its first conference call with analysts since Richard Parsons was named as chief executive Gerald Levin's successor when he retires in May.

The company is struggling against a downtrodden US advertising market, slowing growth in subscriptions to its America Online ISP in the US and fears about the consolidation of the 49.5% stake in AOL Europe that it is set to buy from Bertelsmann for £5.5bn.



AOL reduced its 2001 forecasts in September for the first time last year, to 20% from 30%, but only after the terrorist attacks in New York. It said at the time it expects double-digit growth in earnings before tax, depreciation and amortisation in 2002.



Some investors believe the company lost credibility because it did not revise earlier the steep forecasts it promised analysts when the two companies merged at the beginning of last year.



However, Parsons is expected to take a different approach to the company's financial outlook with the ethos of "underpromising and overdelivering". In the meantime, analysts have begun cutting the company's forecasts ahead of Monday's meeting.



Earlier this week, Morgan Stanley slashed its 2002 ebitda growth estimate for the company to 8% from 15%, citing lower-than-expected contributions from the AOL ISP and its cable networks and music business.



DB Alex Brown analyst Doug Mitchelson cut his 2001 ebitda estimate to £6.9bn from £7bn and 2002 ebitda to £7.4bn from £7.8bn. He expects pro-forma ebitda growth, including AOL Europe, of about 19% and 2002 ebitda to grow 9%.



As well as the downturn in advertising revenues, analysts are concerned that the company's high-speed internet access service is not growing fast enough, and that it is not signing enough deals with ISPs to its broadband cable network.



There are also concerns about the company's international expansion, which analysts believe is crucial to the company's growth.



Some analysts expect the company may backdate the consolidation of the AOL Europe stake to its 2001 accounts. This would reduce what the company would have reported last year and could make it easier for the company to post double-digit earnings growth for 2002.



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Claire Billings, recommends

AOL Time Warner

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