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It's the internet's most closely guarded secret. It influences how tens of billions of pounds are spent globally and can determine whether entire corporations succeed or fail online. It is, of course, Google's search algorithm.

The mathematical equation that underpins Google's search engine is shrouded in mystery. Only a select few engineers within the company are granted access to it, and only then in part. The algorithm is so powerful that the tiniest tweak can cause scores of brands to disappear from Google's results pages entirely.

So if you ever get that sinking feeling you'll know why. Small businesses, affiliates, and mom and pop sites are slipping down the Google rankings as the search giant updates its systems to move the most relevant websites to the top of page one. Big established brands, on the other hand, are rising to the top and wondering why.

The mystery of the rising rankings

Since the beginning of this year, increasing numbers of big brands are appearing in the top ten search results on competitive generic search queries. They are elbowing out of the way thousands of lesser sites in the process. No-one is quite sure why this has happened, but some suspect that changes to Google's algorithm made in February dubbed the 'Vince update' (after the Google engineer that made them) are responsible. This has benefited big brands to the detriment of smaller players.

Along with Google's launch of semantic search capabilities in March, big brands stand to further benefit from tweaks to its algorithm, which has for so long ruled the web. Semantic search offers a list of related terms at the bottom of the first results page. Type in 'principles of physics', and it suggests terms such as 'big-bang physics' and 'Isaac Newton'.

The secret of a good search engine lies in never standing still. Google is constantly updating its service and claims to introduce 300 changes a year to the way it ranks web pages. Every time it does, swathes of sites that depend on a strong showing on the first results page lose out, and find themselves submerged into the oblivion of page two or three, the backwater of the web where few searchers venture.

For top brands, Google's algorithm changes are striking the right chord. As every marketer knows, brands are all about trust, authority and delivering on a promise in all aspects of your behaviour. Stick with those basics on the web and you will power up the search engine rankings, according to Google.

UK brands such as Thomas Cook, gambling site bwin.com and chocolate retailer Hotel Chocolat have benefited in recent weeks from the Vince changes, according their search agency Ambergreen. "Since the turn of the year, more and more big brands are appearing in the top ten without making any noticeable changes to their search engine optimisation or linking strategies," says Ambergreen's technical director Grant Whiteside.

But it is notoriously difficult to know why your site rises or falls in the rankings from week to week. Google, like God, moves in mysterious ways.

As Oliver Elliott, online acquisitions manager at catalogue clothes brand Boden, says: "Optimising search terms is always a minefield when you are operating with 10,000-plus words across each search engine. It is a dark art; even the experts will never be sure of what they are preaching because Google will never reveal exactly what it is doing and the changes it makes."

Boden has just relaunched its website in the UK and Elliott believes that the clicks it is attracting are holding up well given the tough economic times. But he suspects there may have been changes to the way Google ranks paid search terms. "I did think a month back that perhaps we were getting some fairly good rankings on general non-branded terms such as womens' clothing," he says. Even so, it is hard to know whether this is down to a change made to the website or an absence of competitor activity rather than a tweak to the algorithm.

Google software engineer Matt Cutts, appearing on YouTube, claims the Vince update is a minor tweak, though is coy on the details. He denies bloggers' claims that Google is favouring big brands. "We think about trust, authority, reputation, page rank and quality rather than brands. The philosophy at Google has been the same pretty much forever. If somebody types in X, we want to return high-quality information about X," he says. But some US search agencies have calculated material changes in rankings for big brands as a direct result of the update.

Some wonder whether Google really is as single-minded in its quest for relevancy as Cutts would have us believe. After all, Google is under the same financial pressure as every other media owner in these tough economic times. Boosting big brands to the top could pile pressure on smaller websites to increase their paid listings.

Impact of universal search

The biggest recent change Google has made to its system was the launch of universal search in 2007 so videos, blogs and maps could be included on the first page of results. For some, this was a naked attempt to encourage websites to pay for the sponsored links, since universal search cuts the numbers of relevant sites appearing on the first page, so many will have to pay to get on page one.

Conspiracy theorists, of whom there are many on the web, ponder whether the brand-friendly Vince update is an attempt to curry favour with big corporations and force smaller brands to pay through the nose to appear in sponsored links, knowing they are unlikely to appear on page one of search results whatever they do. In the absence of greater information from Google, all sorts of theories and speculation are liable to run wild.

Google's introduction of elements of the semantic web may not have the same immediate effect on brands as the Vince change. But it is part of the long slog to achieve ever more exact interpretations of users' queries. The aim is to understand users' language and the intention of their search rather than simply bringing up sites matching the individual words tapped into the Google search bar.

Brands will benefit from these semantically related search listings, which now appear at the bottom of page one of search results. Search for 'supermarket' and you may not get Tesco in the main results, but it is mentioned in the related list. Most see this semantic search update as a small change, but a tentative step in the right direction. "People can be a bit more relaxed in their use of language," says Neil McCarthy, sales and marketing chief at Latitude. "They only have to use words from the right group rather than find the exact word."

Google claims semantic search assumes not only that a search query is matched to the content of a particular web page, but the meaning of the query is matched to the meaning of the website. Though still in its infancy, it is predicted to become a significant force as the internet matures and users become more demanding about their searches. As Jenny Kirby, head of search at i-ievel, says: "Google will have to enhance semantic capabilities: it needs better ways of interpreting user intent. That will require greater use of semantics."

Semantics beyond Google

Many rival search engines already use elements of semantics, and there has been much hype about semantic engines such as Cuil. But Kirby says that because their user bases are so small, it is hard to tell how sophisticated they are. And she doubts any rivals will manage to beat Google to working out a successful form of semantic search. "When Google cracks it, it will do it so well and so extensively, it will blow everything else out of the water," she says.

Rival search engine Ask boasts strong use of semantic search and an ability to understand what, where and why questions. This was enhanced with its relaunch last October. Soon it will have the capacity to answer questions such as 'Is EastEnders on tonight?' and 'What football games are on TV this weekend?' The answers are provided through Ask's 'Direct Answer from Database' technology.

In the offing

Just recently, it has emerged that Google is in advanced talks with micro-blogging site Twitter. In one fell swoop, the search engine would get access to Twitter's astonishing real-time search capability, enabling users to see debate unfolding within seconds of major (and minor) events occurring.

The big question remains whether there is any prospect of a rival knocking Google off its perch. "Google is like a black swan. It will take another black swan to unseat it," says John Beeston, client services director at Efficient Frontier.

Beeston draws attention to the imminent launch of wolframalpha.com. The new service, billed as a 'computational knowledge engine', was developed by British physicist Stephen Wolfram, and differs from Google in that it does not deliver documents that might contain an answer. Neither does the service interpret natural language like Ask nor provide a giant database of knowledge like Wikipedia. Instead, it computes the answer to a question based on the vast amount of data and scientific information it holds. Due to launch in May, it is not positioned as a rival to Google, though may provide stiff competition if it can give exact answers to questions on an array of subjects.

Until such time as a rival comes along, the biggest brands are likely to benefit from the stream of updates and changes Google makes to its web-ruling algorithm. It seems that for brands on the web, the only way is up.