The report on global adspend upgrades ZenithOptimedia's growth forecast for 2005 from 5% to 5.4%. For 2006, it is forecasting growth of 6.5%, dropping back to 6.1% in 2007.
ZenithOptimedia says that it expects television's share of the ad market to peak in 2006. The medium grew from 30.3% of the market in 1980 to 37.6% last year, but ZenithOptimedia is forecasting that after hitting a peak of 37.9% in 2006, it will drop back to 37.8%.
It said the fall in TV was due in part to advertisers diverting more and more of their budgets to the internet.
"We record only one previous instance in which television's share of world adspend declined, and that was when the dotcom bubble burst in 2001," Zenith said.
The internet remains far and away the fastest-growing medium, up by 21% last year. ZenithOptimedia said that it expected double-digit growth to continue over the next three years.
However, it said that the internet is by no means the sole driving force of growth, and that adspend on traditional media grew by 7% in 2004.
This figure looks set to slow down globally, after the boost provided by the Athens Olympics and the US Presidential election. ZenithOptimedia is forecasting it to grow 5.1% in 2005, 6.2% in 2006 and 5.7% in 2007.
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