On 21 July, the nominees for the 2009 prize were announced. Current odds have Florence + the Machine as front runners, followed by Bat for Lashes 4-1, Horrors 11-2, Lisa Hannigan 6-1, Friendly Fires 13-2 and La Roux 10-1. But does the buzz support these odds?
For all the betting types out there, Jam, the social media unit of I-level, provides an insider's buzz tip on who to back this year.
As the odds reveal, Florence + the Machine are favourites for this year's prize, although you never can tell which way the judges will go.
You may have noticed the prize is being sponsored by Barclaycard this year, not a brand traditionally associated with music. Has this fact gone unnoticed or are people referring to the prize using its full name, sponsor included? The answer, unfortunately for Barclaycard, appears to be the former, with only 264 of the 2,129 comments mentioning its involvement.
It is also interesting to note that having the highest level of sponsorship for an event (a brand tied into the name of the event) does not guarantee that people will choose to acknowledge or mention this fact. With Barclaycard, only in its first year of a four-year deal, it will obviously be a while before it becomes synonymous with the event. Whether it is possible for it to replace the level of association previous sponsors Mercury had remains to be seen.
Keep an eye out for the winner to be announced on 8 September, when we will see if the bookmakers and the buzz have got this prediction correct.
How long can the bookmakers carry on with their traditional techniques before using buzz monitoring tools to help make more accurate predictions? If they did, they wouldnít have the Horrors at 11-2. Cue Horrors to scoop the prize proving both the odds and buzz wrong.
* Jam uses data from various sources to track buzz and conversations across the web
Author: Sam Waymont
www.spreadingjam.com