After a 5% year-on-year decline in 2006, TV ad spend in the UK is set to grow by 0.5% in 2007, moving towards 2% growth in 2008, Zenith said. The Publicis agency attributed the change in fortunes to a strong performance from ITV1 and stable audience figures for Sky, but cautioned against excessive optimism.
The report said: “We expect the pattern of small increases to continue for the next three years, but can find no evidence to indicate any significant increase in revenues.”
The UK figures chime with a buoyant global forecast for TV. Zenith predicts the Olympic Games will help lift television’s share of the world ad market to a record 38.2% in 2008, up from 37.9% in 2007.
However, television is losing market share in North America and Western Europe. Zenith expects TV’s share of ad expenditure to fall half a percentage point to 30.4% in Western Europe in 2008. This is due mainly to the spread of PVRs, the migration of viewers to cheaper specialist channels and competition from the internet, the agency said.
Radio has also seen a turnaround in the UK, with ad spend forecast to grow year on year by 1.7% in 2007, up from a 4.3% decline in 2006. This is against predictions of a gradual fall in radio’s share of the global ad market, to 8.1% in 2007 and 7.8% by 2009, down from 8.6% in 2005.
Meanwhile, the decline in UK ad spend across press and magazines has slowed. Newspaper spend is expected to fall by 1.8% in 2007, compared with a 4.2% dip last year, with a 1.3% fall forecast for magazines, following on from a 3.3% drop in 2006. Both media are expected to grow in 2008, by 1.1% and 0.1% respectively.
The report stated that “the desire and energy to innovate and develop circulation-boosting strategies is evident”, referring to The Mail on Sunday cover-mounting the new Prince album in July, nine days before its release.
Zenith also forecasts a return to revenue growth for regional newspapers in 2008.
The report said: “We expect the pattern of small increases to continue for the next three years, but can find no evidence to indicate any significant increase in revenues.”
The UK figures chime with a buoyant global forecast for TV. Zenith predicts the Olympic Games will help lift television’s share of the world ad market to a record 38.2% in 2008, up from 37.9% in 2007.
However, television is losing market share in North America and Western Europe. Zenith expects TV’s share of ad expenditure to fall half a percentage point to 30.4% in Western Europe in 2008. This is due mainly to the spread of PVRs, the migration of viewers to cheaper specialist channels and competition from the internet, the agency said.
Radio has also seen a turnaround in the UK, with ad spend forecast to grow year on year by 1.7% in 2007, up from a 4.3% decline in 2006. This is against predictions of a gradual fall in radio’s share of the global ad market, to 8.1% in 2007 and 7.8% by 2009, down from 8.6% in 2005.
Meanwhile, the decline in UK ad spend across press and magazines has slowed. Newspaper spend is expected to fall by 1.8% in 2007, compared with a 4.2% dip last year, with a 1.3% fall forecast for magazines, following on from a 3.3% drop in 2006. Both media are expected to grow in 2008, by 1.1% and 0.1% respectively.
The report stated that “the desire and energy to innovate and develop circulation-boosting strategies is evident”, referring to The Mail on Sunday cover-mounting the new Prince album in July, nine days before its release.
Zenith also forecasts a return to revenue growth for regional newspapers in 2008.
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