The Japanese car manufacturer, which began a four-year £25m broadcast sponsorship deal with ITV earlier this year, will invoke a clause in its contract with the channel, which states that Toyota is entitled to a cash rebate if UK television audiences fall below 2001 viewing figures.
According to data from IM Futures, a division of Initiative Media, UK audiences were down 0.4% year on year.
Industry sources suggested that Toyota's rebate would be a significantly higher proportion than 0.4% of the £6.25m that it is estimated to pay each year.
While such clauses are not uncommon in sports broadcasters' contracts with sponsors, the development underlines Formula 1's fall from grace.
It is also a blow to ITV, which has been widely applauded for its coverage of the sport since it acquired the rights from the BBC in 1997.
The IM Futures figures show that audiences for 11 of the year's 17 Grands Prix were down on last year, with the trend particularly acute in the second half of the season, when the sport was under fire for being predictable and boring.
Toyota GB marketing director Paul Philpott, its sponsorship agency Zenith Alliance and ITV all refused to comment. Toyota took over the broadcast tie-up from Texaco to promote the F1 team it launched this year.
On Monday, the Formula One Commission announced a series of changes aimed at reviving interest in F1, including revamping the qualifying system for races and banning the team orders that attracted so much controversy.
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