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Columnists should occasionally risk getting their heads lopped off,

if they turn out to be talking twaddle.

Heroically risking decapitation then, I predict grocery home shopping

will turn out to be a storm in a teabag. Despite the expansion of Tesco

Direct, Somerfield’s purchase of Flanagans, and Iceland’s growing

commitment, my own crystal balls (on special offer at Asda) tell me

grocery home shopping will never be more than a tiny niche market.

Home shopping is no new phenomenon. A century ago all the marketing

gypsies of the day predicted the telephone (the Victorian

cyber-superhighway) would soon bring home shopping into every home. By

1900 most great stores had mail-order departments. Whiteley’s boasted it

could supply ’anything from a pin to an elephant’; Harrods, which

pioneered shopping by telephone, rejoiced in the telegraphic address

’Everything, London’; Army & Navy Stores produced catalogues offering

such delights as hip-baths, banjoes and Wibley Wob table soccer.

Home shoppers depend on catalogues. As every anorak knows, the web can

be a wonderful catalogue provider. I recently whistled through 637 books

on creativity on the Amazon.com site in a few hours, and bought a

couple.

That was faster than I could have done the job in a bookshop. But I

don’t buy from Amazon.com because it is breathtakingly exciting to have

books delivered by Mr Postie. On the contrary, I love going to

bookshops. So do all heavy bookbuyers. That is why Tim Waterstone is so

rich. Waterstone’s, despite Amazon, is currently converting Simpsons in

Piccadilly into probably the biggest bookstore in the world. He is not

daft.

And just as I like seeing most books before I buy, I like seeing most

groceries before I buy. I would need to be off my trolley to buy fresh

meat and fish, fruit and vegetables, delicatessen, cheeses, and much

else via home delivery. And when nipping off to the supermarket for my

meat and milk it would be dumb not to collect the rest.

Moreover, Amazon’s books can be dropped through my letter box. Groceries

have to be delivered specially, not left on the doorstep for the

delectation of passing strangers. In consequence, Amazon’s prices can

often undercut conventional shops while grocery home delivery is

expensive. Man-hours, vans and petrol, for which Tesco charges a fiver,

means 10% price hike even on a pounds 50 order. (Clearly Tesco is

discouraging small orders - the kind of orders they would most likely

get off the net.)

About 4% of all shopping is done from home. For the great majority of

people, for the great majority of products, home delivery is not a

consumer benefit. It never has been, and in an era when more women work

and few have neighbours they can trust, it’s less relevant than ever.

Moreover, the people who would benefit most - people who live deep in

the countryside - are the people nobody wants to deliver to. It’s a nice

irony that while the prophets are predicting a boom in home grocery

shopping, the milkmen are fighting an inexorable switch away from home

delivery to supermarkets.

The net is a wonderful medium for innumerable things. In addition to

books, I’d willingly buy banjoes, elephants and Wibley Wob soccer off

the web. But not groceries.