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There was a certain irony about this year's Valentine's Day - it was the date when the ad world's love affair with tobacco was finally given the kiss of death as the Tobacco Advertising and Promotions Act came into force.

It means that the heady days of the iconic Silk Cut ads and seductive Marlboro girls touting their wares in smoky clubs are gone. Ads in print and outdoor media were immediately outlawed with internet advertising restricted. There'll be no more sponsorship of sporting events by tobacco products, and direct mail and other promotional activity was given a three-month wind-down period, with activity to cease on May 14.

So how is this big-budget, lucrative market likely to shape up post-May 14? The finer details of the rules over the promotion of tobacco products at point of sale have yet to be confirmed - a source of continuing frustration to an industry keen to move on under the new legislation - but it is clear that direct mail still has a role to play in this market. The caveat is that very strict opt-in regulations must apply.

On-going opt-in process

Unlike other market sectors, where best-practice dictates that the customer need only opt-in once to give their permission to receive marketing communications, with tobacco products the consumer must re-opt in every time they are contacted in order to receive the next communication. This is likely to cause real problems for tobacco companies if they don't already have opted-in customers they can re-activate each time.

However, marketers still have until May 14 to communicate with as many consumers as possible. The DMA is currently examining the Act to enable it to help marketers work out exactly what is and isn't possible under the new rules. It is advising people to do as much as they can before the cut-off date. If marketers have a list of opted-in consumers by May 14, they at least have a starting point for direct communications.

The path to the consumer will still not be an easy one, but what tobacco companies can do is come up with alternative strategies to get their brands noticed. Gallaher has already been investing in new and innovative ways of advertising its brands and is undaunted by the Act, according to a company spokesperson: "We've invested heavily in our brands over the years and believe this will stand us in good stead."

And this investment has been considerable. Last year, tobacco firms spent £25 million on advertising in the UK alone. But with around 120,000 people dying here every year from smoking-related diseases, the government believes that the advertising ban could save up to 3,000 lives a year.

Its stance is that advertising does indeed encourage people to take up smoking. According to government figures, every day last year around 1.6 million people in Britain saw a tobacco billboard.

But how successful the ban will be at cutting consumption remains to be seen, with many doubting its efficacy.

"If anything, it will lead to an increase in consumption by reinforcing the fact that tobacco is a forbidden fruit. This will only encourage children and young people to use the product," argues Philip Circus, director of legal affairs at the Institute of Sales Promotion.

He believes that the evidence already exists from other countries to prove this viewpoint. Tobacco consumption is falling at a slower rate in countries that have already imposed ad restrictions compared with the UK where advertising has been allowed until now, claims Circus.

One obvious fear from the industry is that the ad restrictions will drive brands down the route where there is no longer any way of differentiating themselves in the eyes of the consumer - except through price.

"There'll be few opportunities to reinforce a brand's positioning," says John Wigram, head of planning at Arc, which works with tobacco giant Gallaher. "And consumer decision can come down to price alone in the absence of other compelling brand reasons."

There is no doubt in the Tobacco Manufacturers' Association's (TMA) mind that the ban will affect the industry.

"The Act is a constraint on legitimate marketing procedure," says Chris Ogden, director of trade industry affairs at the TMA. "Established market shares are unlikely to change. It is doubtful whether it will affect consumption, but it will affect brand choice."

Shift to trade advertising

But some advertising is still permissible under the Act. It is not an offence to market tobacco products to the trade, so there is likely to be a significant shift of marketing spend to activity in this quarter.

Neither is it an offence to advertise on gantries where tobacco products are offered for sale, or where the principal market isn't the UK, or in an international publication.

And importantly for marketers, neither is it breaking the law to reply to an individual's request for information about a tobacco product. What will become critical is taking full advantage of this opportunity to secure permission for future contact.

There's no denying that the Act signals a huge change for tobacco advertisers.

But with millions to spend and billions to be made, it is not something that the industry is likely to take lying down.

TOBACCO ADVERTISING SPEND

- Between September 2001 and August 2002, £25 million was spent on tobacco advertising in the UK, excluding sponsorship and indirect advertising, according to figures from Nielsen Media Research.

- £13.2 million went on outdoor media such as billboards, £11 million on press advertising, £714,550 on radio advertising and £106,253 on direct mail.