The report, from merchant bank Veronis Suhler Stevenson, gives a brighter picture than some other recent forecasts of the recovery taking place in the advertising market.
Last month, advertising forecaster Robert Coen from Interpublic's media-buying network Universal McCann indicated that the recovery was not as great as hoped at the end of 2001.
In his 'Insider's Report', Universal's director of forecasting predicted that advertising spend would increase by only 2.1% this year to $236.2bn (拢152.6bn). The prediction is down on the 2.4% Coen forecast when he published his last report in December 2001.
The 2.9% increase predicted by Veronis Suhler Stevenson compares with a 6.2% drop in 2001. The bank pointed to an increase in radio adspend and the strong upfront buying season in the spring for TV airtime as contributing to the rise.
According to the report: "Advertising accounts for 30% of all communications spending and has a cyclical relationship with the economy. So, as the economy improves, we expect advertising and therefore communications spending to grow in a parallel path."
The bank, which specialises in the media and communications industries, made its forecast as part of its 'The Communications Industry Forecast', which is being published today.
The report takes a look at the entire US media industry, which the bank does not expect to recover from the current recession as well as it did from the one in the early 90s.
In its 18th annual forecast, the bank says this time the recovery lacks the power of the technology and internet boom, which helped to power the last recovery.
According to the report: "Tech spending has since cooled dramatically, and there is no equivalent new generator of advertising spending either developing or looming on the horizon.
The lack of a technology type boom has contributed to the media industry's growth rate slowing down. The bank said the communications industry will be the US's fifth fastest-growing part of the economy from 2001 to 2006, with an average annual rate of 5.5%.
The communications industry, buoyed by the dotcom boom, had been the third fastest-growing from 1996 to 2001 when it grew 6.5%.
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