If there is one thing the British know well, it's unpredictable summer weather. Sultry days in the office followed by Bank Holiday washouts and blustery weddings are familiar territory, while only a fool will organise a barbecue more than two days ahead. The fickleness of the UK weather may provoke a few moans and groans, but life carries on.
Not so when company profits are on the line and inclement conditions hit what should be guaranteed sales. Already this year, retailers from B&Q to Thorntons have cited that other extreme of the British climate, January and February's unusually cold and prolonged winter freeze, as a contributory factor in disappointing sales in the first quarter. Online fashion retailers such as Net-a-Porter, meanwhile, report surging sales on rainy lunchtimes.
The past three years have delivered mixed fortunes for ice-cream brands as the result of consecutive poor summers.
To help counteract this, Unilever, which dominates the UK ice-cream market with brands such as Magnum, Cornetto, Carte D'Or and Ben & Jerry's, recently undertook research into the relationship between hot, sunny weather and impulse ice-cream sales.
'Interestingly, the results revealed that sunshine can have a bigger impact on sales than the temperature. A cool, sunny day can actually sell more ice cream than a hotter, cloudy day,' says Melanie Rolfe, category manager for impulse ice cream at Unilever.
As a result of these findings, the manufacturer has updated its weather-forecasting service, which links historic sales data to Met Office forecasts, to help retailers and wholesalers manage stocks.
Vanda Noakes, Unilever's ice cream senior category and market insight manager, says this is a serious issue, particularly in the impulse sector. 'Our system can help retailers plan stocks better, and improve their profits by avoiding both excess stock and stock run-outs that occur due to the unpredictable British weather,' she adds.
Maximising the sales opportunities offered by intermittent spells of sunny weather is not just a challenge for ice-cream brands, however. When forecasts are good, manufacturers in sectors from soft drinks to barbecue coals also need to act swiftly to target those consumers looking to enjoy the great outdoors.
Weather opportunism
With the BBQ and picnic season now well under way, Innocent is looking to drive sales of its This Water line with a thermal-activated digital outdoor campaign on 20 of JCDecaux's PrimeTime screens around London. Running through June and July, the campaign for the flavoured-water brand runs only on sunny days between 6am and 6pm.
'The media plan for This Water addresses consumers at points when they really want refreshment and, particularly, when the sun is shining,' says brand manager Emilie Stephenson. 'Alongside more traditional media, for the first time this year we have included a "heat-activated" element: digital advertising panels that are turned on during hot weather to encourage consumers to cool off with This Water. This has worked really well for us, as the long bursts of hot weather have enabled us to activate these panels even more than we initially thought.'
Likewise, McCain has used the flexibility and immediacy that this technique offers to boost sales of its BBQ Wedges, by targeting consumers only on hot summer weekends.
'You can't predict the British weather,' says McCain marketing manager Tracy Blundell. 'That (greater) level of flexibility is a real plus for us, as it ensures that we can reach our audience when they are most likely to be thinking about barbecues and enjoying the outdoors.'
However, with sunburn at Wimbledon as likely as a mud bath at Glastonbury, marketers should be well-prepared to adapt to unpredictable British summer weather. Indeed, it would be a brave marketer who cited lack of foresight about the weather as the root of any sales problems over the summer. Certainly last June, Unilever had temporary trouble with its ice-cream distribution. However, this was caused by an operational fault at its cold-storage premises in Gloucester, not bad planning.
Heinz takes steps to ensure effective seasonal distribution: its cross-functional team meets early in the year and then on an ongoing basis to create and implement plans to ensure that it meets increased consumer demand for its salad cream and HP BBQ sauces over the summer months. 'We also have access to long-range weather forecasts that help us manage stock-holding and production throughout the year,' says senior brand manager for Heinz Salad Cream, Lynsey Hurst.
Perennial consumption
While Heinz Salad Cream enjoys a sales boost over the Christmas period, the manufacturer is also working on NPD concepts with consumers. This includes exploring ways to extend consumption of its BBQ sauces by encouraging consumers to use them more in their cooking all year round, as well as on occasions such as Bonfire Night.
'We see opportunities to drive growth in both BBQ and Salad Cream categories, and this includes leveraging our key seasons as well as using consumer insight to create new and exciting reasons to purchase all year round,' says Hurst.
Similarly, supermarkets are investing in strategies and technologies to try to outpace whatever weather the summer may deliver. In May, Sainsbury's began rolling out a multimillion-pound real-time supply chain system that allows the supermarket to react to customer buying patterns on the same day rather than overnight.
Claiming that this system will reduce the amount of un-bought food in its stores by 15% during periods of unexpected weather, Tim Goalen, Sainsbury's supply chain director, says: 'Several times a year, shelves might be full of barbecue food for the weekend, only for unexpected rain to cause everyone to clamour for warm, hearty food instead. This new way of working will greatly reduce the risk of that.'
Say 'cheese'
Meanwhile, last month at the Cannes International Advertising Festival, as part of its 'share-happy' push for its Wall's ice-cream brand, Unilever unveiled the world's first smile-activated ice-cream vending machine.
Expected to hit UK shores next year in prime shopping areas and at summer events, this machine uses augmented-reality technology from SapientNitro to attract and engage passers-by in measuring their smile. With the option to then upload any resulting images to Facebook, participants are rewarded with an ice cream.
'We're really excited about the possibility this technology holds,' says Wall's global brand development director Ian Maskell. 'It offers a revolutionary way for consumers to buy ice cream and, simultaneously, a revolutionary brand experience.'
Yet, while few food sectors are more weather-dependent than ice cream, two-thirds of consumers who enjoy ice cream claim to eat it all year round, according to Mintel. Moreover, while those aged 55 and over are most likely to always have a tub of ice cream in the freezer, multi-packs remain a popular supermarket purchase among 16- to 24-year-olds.
As such, brands including Magnum and Cornetto have brought out take-home mini-treat varieties, aimed at encouraging consumption throughout the year, while competing with the likes of Cadbury's portfolio of confectionery-branded ice-cream products.
Meanwhile, to meet rising consumer expectations around indulgence, last month US ice-cream brand Baskin-Robbins launched its first range of premium ice-cream tubs into the UK supermarket sector, having signed a six-month deal with Morrisons.
Experts claim there is scope for brands to expand year-round ice-cream consumption still further. 'With the economic downturn, there's an opportunity to make eating ice cream part of the perfect evening in with friends and family,' says Mintel senior food analyst Vivianne Ihekweazu.
Highlighting the as-yet largely unexplored options for luxury-branded ice creams to tap into supermarket meal deals, she concludes: 'Ice-cream brands need to stop blaming poor weather and move away from their dependence on sales over the summer months.'