The outlook from Zenith goes against other recent forecasts, which have painted a brighter picture with advertising picking up in the second half of 2002.
However, according to the report, these signs of recovery have failed to make it through to the ad industry. "Despite sustained consumer confidence and signs of economic recovery in most of our seven countries, advertisers will only start spending when earnings improve," Zenith said.
The figures from Zenith are predicting that advertising spend will fall for the second year in a row. It predicts that the world's seven biggest markets, which include the US, UK, Europe and Japan and account for 74% of global adspend, will fall by 1.9%. This compares poorly with the 0.7% it was predicting in December.
In the US, Zenith expects adspend to fall 1.8% this year with newspaper and magazine continuing to suffer the worst. This is in contrast to the television market in the US, which is showing increased signs of improvement. NBC was the latest to report positive news on the advertising front last week.
In the UK earlier this month, there were clear signs that the worst slump in advertising revenues since WWII could be at an end, following the release of confidential figures, which show that commercial television revenues are set to be substantially up on last year.
The figures showed that commercial TV revenues are forecast to rise by 11.6% in May, compared with last year, and June is expected to be 7% up on 2001. These figures were in sharp contrast to the falls seen in January and February. January 2002 was 13% down on 2001.
Zenith said that advertising spend in Europe was expected to fall by about 1.6% this year. Germany and the UK look to be suffering the worst ,with adspend predicted to fall by 2.8% and 1.9%. Italy by contrast is performing better and Zenith expects spending there to rise 2%.
If you have an opinion on this or any other issue raised on Brand Republic, join the debate in the .
_1.jpg)
.jpg)
