WPP Group set to report a fall in first-half profits

LONDON – WPP Group is expected to report a fall in profits in its first-half results this week, but despite this Sir Martin Sorrell is set to tell investors that he thinks the worst of the advertising recession is behind the industry.

Investment bank Merrill Lynch is predicting that WPP's profits for the first half are likely to be around £186m, down on last year's £210m.

The bank is expecting a better performance in the second half with predictions for full-year profits of £429m, up on £394m last time.

WPP's half-year results will also confirm that the second Gulf War has had minimal impact on the advertising industry, despite fears to the contrary.

However, WPP is likely to receive a boost following its victory in the battle for Cordiant Communications.

It is likely to reveal further details of its plans to integrate parts of the Cordiant business with its own and outline cost-saving efficiencies.

Sir Martin will tell investors that he thinks the worst of the recession is past and will focus on the uplift WPP has received in the US, the UK ad group's biggest market.

Sir Martin will likely reiterate his position that the ad industry is improving and will receive a boost in 2004 from the Olympics and the US Presidential elections.

"The underlying pattern is a political one, which drives the economic one and is then boosted by the Olympics and football. These sporting events are the icing on the cake, not the drivers: the driver is the political cycle," Sir Martin told the Financial Times.

"Politicians take up TV space, which reduces supply and lifts prices," he said.

However, while 2004 will be better many, including Sir Martin, have said that it will not be until 2008 that the ad industry returns to the kind of highs experienced in 2000.

In June, Sir Martin told the World Newspaper Congress that although 2004 would be a "better year", it would not match the good times of the late 1990s.

"If you're waiting for a boom year, stand by for 2008. In the short term, we probably see the industry continuing to grow at low growth rates," he said.

In 2008, the multibillion-dollar Chinese construction boom associated with Beijing's hosting of the 2008 Olympics and the 2010 Shanghai World Expo is expected to give the world economy a significant boost.

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