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The nation's footballing hopes still lie at the feet of Rooney and the boys, but for media owners, expectations surrounding the World Cup are fading fast. Rather than the hoped for bean feast, estimates from broadcasters and media agencies suggest that June is going to be a dire month for TV advertising.

ITV1, which had most to gain, could see its revenues slump by at least 3% in June year on year. Buying giant Group M predicts this could leave ITV1 £20m short of its target for the month.

City analysts and TV buyers are stunned at the outcome. "Even in conservative circles, people were looking for at least a 10% increase in ITV's advertising in June," says one City analyst. "If there was one event that you would expect to guarantee a good month for ITV, it would be the World Cup. For it to end up being down would be extraordinary."

The prospects in other media sectors are not so rosy either. News-papers will doubtless push out a plethora of World Cup supplements, but it remains to be seen how much advertising they will carry. With their shorter booking lead times, newspapers are hanging their hopes on English success and a surge of last minute tactical advertising.

Initiative predicts the competition will attract average TV audiences across all games of up to nine million viewers, with kick-off times ideal for UK audiences. So why has the World Cup, arguably the biggest global sporting event alongside the Olympics, turned into such a dog?

Avoiding the tournament

It appears many advertisers are specifically planning their TV campaigns to avoid the tournament, not just FMCG brands, whose advertising is predominantly female focused, but also the likes of car clients, which had been expected to be among the biggest World Cup players.

ITV is dismayed at the lack of interest from a string of sectors, including the mobile phone, insurance and even the drinks and sports goods industries, which it had counted on to spend big, despite campaigns from the likes of Carlsberg, Nike and broadcast and tournament sponsor Budweiser.

Gary Digby, managing director of ITV Sales, says: "The market is a major disappointment considering the amount of money we've invested in the tournament." He adds that the broadcaster is seriously questioning the value of bidding for future big events, with negotiations over Euro 2008 in Switzerland and Austria just months away.

"I can see the time when we don't bother bidding. If the BBC took all the World Cup rights, what difference would it make to us?"

Digby lays the blame for World Cup apathy at the media agency remuneration structure, with the majority of agencies on fees, rather than commission. "I don't think they are that bothered about driving deals," he says bluntly.

Ilke Shakir, investment director on the Unilever business at MindShare, confirms that some of his clients are actively planning around the World Cup. "We'd have to be honest and say Ford is not spending as much as we'd have anticipated."

He points out that ITV's May revenues have gained around £4m from advertisers planning out of the event while July and August, normally an anti-climax after big sporting events, may also get a slight boost. "It's like someone has trodden on a balloon and all the air has gone out on either side," says. Shakir. "But advertisers are not spending when ITV wanted them too and that's during the World Cup."

Shared misery

ITV's misery is shared with other broadcasters. C4 predicts the TV ad market as a whole, which had been expected to benefit from the impact of the World Cup bonanza, will be down 10% year on year in June. Despite C4's line-up including Big Brother and Lost, its revenues could be down by as much as 16% - a "horror story," according to one C4 executive.

Worryingly, some are starting to suggest the World Cup woes are indicative of bigger problems afoot for traditional media generally, and TV in particular, which many believe will struggle to avoid advertising decline this year. The first quarter Bellwether survey of marketing budgets, which reported the weakest level of budget increases since 2002, provided little comfort except for online.

Over the coming weeks, the media community will be obsessing over the health of Rooney's metatarsals and praying that England can finally succeed in a penalty shoot-out.

Any hopes of an advertising salvation may rest on the nous of a certain Swede. Let's hope he doesn't get turned into a turnip.

FOOTBALL TOURNAMENTS

Television: In June 2002, during the World Cup in Japan and Korea, despite morning kick-off times, the broadcast market was up 11% year on year at £265.4m, with ITV1 also up 11% at £142.7m. June 2004, which saw the European Championships in Portugal, witnessed an even bigger increase, with the broadcast market up 16% year on year to £277.2m, with ITV1 up 17.1% on £138.8m.

And how other media are affected by the 2006 World Cup:

Outdoor: The outdoor industry is reporting significant activity surrounding the World Cup but, as in previous years, the majority of spending will be focused in the build up to the event. Brands including World Cup sponsor Budweiser are among the most heavyweight spenders for May, which could see double-digit growth year on year. However, June is unlikely to see a major boost as outdoor is unable to react as quickly as some media to a successful England run.

Press: All major newspapers are planning World Cup supplements and increased number of sports pages, but do not expect a significant increase in advertising revenue. Instead, clients are expected to switch campaigns normally destined for the news pages into sport. The sector's best chance of a glorious World Cup summer is if England make it to the later stages of the tourn-ament, when papers will be able to take advantage of their ability to take late bookings.

Online: Also expected to see a World Cup impact, although not huge. Another World Cup sponsor, Fujifilm, gave a boost to the sector this week after announcing it would be spending 90% of its World Cup budget online.