The 7.8% increase will take the US market to $138.4bn (£75.8bn), according to full-year forecasts released today by TNS. This increase follows the estimated growth of 6.1% in 2003 as the US economy continues to rebound.
The figure compares favourably to other recent forecasts including one from ZenithOptimedia, which in December predicted US growth of just 5%.
However, there is support for such a healthy growth rate prediction. Towards the end of last year, Rupert Murdoch said forward advertising bookings for the major US television networks for the coming 12 months were "just sensational", with volumes and prices higher than expected.
Steven J Fredericks, president and chief executive officer of TNS Media Intelligence/CMR, said: "We anticipate expenditures on the upcoming US elections and summer Olympic Games to strengthen the ad market significantly in 2004. Additionally, as the economy improves, all leading categories of media will see improvement in advertising spending, with Spanish-language television, the internet and spot TV showing the strongest year-on-year gains."
TNS is predicting quarter-by-quarter growth, with the second half of the year reflecting the impact of election spending and the summer Olympic build-up.
Quarterly growth estimates
Time period change vs. 2003
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First half 2004 6.8%
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First quarter 2004 6.5%
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Second quarter 2004 7.1%
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Second half 2004 8.6%
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Third quarter 2004 8.4%
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Fourth quarter 2004 8.9%
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Full year 2004 7.8%
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TNS said the forecast highlights the fact that advertisers are paying close attention to the strong Spanish-language market, which it predicts will grow 15.7%. It said internet and spot TV will also see increases be in the double-digits, at 12.1% and 10.8% respectively, in a year in which all leading media will experience increases.
Growth estimates for 2004 by media
Media percent estimate
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Spanish language TV 15.7%
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Internet 12.1%
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Spot TV 10.8%
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Network TV 9.6%
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Radio 9.5%
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Cable network TV 8.3%
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Consumer/Sunday magazines 5.7%
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Newspapers 5.5%
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Syndication 5.4%
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Outdoor 5.0%
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The most recent figures for the UK, while not so stellar, are still healthier than 2003. ZenithOptimedia is predicting that adspend in the UK will rise 3.2%.
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