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ALASTAIR RAY

Media hacks are simple folk. We can only cope with one broadcaster in crisis at a time.

And, in order to ensure that media news remains black and white, it is important to remember that one station will always be flavour of the month and another will be on the skids.

Last year, it was a pre-merger ITV, this year it’s been the BBC – but soon there could be a vacancy.

According to Carat, Channel 4 is at risk of becoming the prime candidate to fill it. A staid schedule, over-reliant on US imports and Big Brother, could come crashing down, the agency warns, once Friends and Frasier join Sex and the City among the dearly departed.

The station stands accused of over-milking Graham Norton “à la ITV” and points out that, in 2003, its share of commercial adult 16-to-34 viewing fell from 19.6% to 18.7%.

These are not new claims. For the last few negotiating rounds, rivals have highlighted how crucial Big Brother has become to the station’s ratings delivery.

In 2002 and 2003, outsiders questioned C4’s ability to resist a kicking but, thanks in part to E4, it retained or gained share. Last year, it took 20.8% – the same as 2002. This year, it is expecting around 21%.

The case for the defence is credible. C4 has splashed cash on The Simpsons, which will be slotted in from November. If C4 can match the 3.5 million viewers it got on BBC2, then it will add a point of share among 16 to 34s.

Nip/Tuck, a tale of every day plastic surgeons, is due to transfer from Sky in the summer.

Factual is performing strongly, with Brat Camp doing well and Wife Swap due to return. Drama too has been boosted. A slate that includes Teachers and No Angels has made a significant impression.

While last year’s Big Brother may not have been the tabloid success it was in 2002, it still outperformed the 2001 edition in the ratings.

Add in C4’s ability to attract light TV viewers and insiders point out you have a channel in rude health, protected by a position in multichannel that will also include a new free-to-air offering, More 4, from early 2005.

C4 is adamant that Friday nights will retain their comedy theme, but replacing Friends after the final episode on May 28 will be no easy task. Frasier departs in mid-June.

This year, in particular, the station needs Big Brother to do well. Strip out the weeks when Big Brother was on and C4’s share of 16 to 34s drops significantly – from 19.6% to 17.7% in 2002 and from 18.7% to 17.5% in 2003.

The terrestrial channel still accounts for 94% of C4’s total revenue, any falls in ratings here will cause agencies to question value. The 30 to 40% premium charged for ads in first run Friends will not be transferred to The Simpsons and contract rights renewal means that it cannot rely on agencies taking cash out of ITV to shore up its position.

Channel 4 says it is performing well in 2004. In Q1, its share of ad revenue including E4 and FilmFour has been around 21.5%, compared to 20.8% in 2003.

The share of ABC1s is at 18.7% for January to March, up on the same period in 2003. The station says that Carat is being “absurdly pessimistic” and points out that there were doom-mongers when Cheers said goodbye.

C4 thinks it has a strong strategy in place to handle the departure of its US stalwarts.

Carat clearly has questions. One thing everyone will agree on is that meeting the challenge will become even harder if, as predicted by some pundits, Mark Thompson is tempted away by the BBC.

Maggie Brown is back next week.