Sky may have to pay 35% more to retain the main share of domestic live rights from 2007 onwards and will lose subscribers if it fails to do so, according to a briefing paper on the company by Dutch investment bank ABN Amro.
The move also means that ITV and BBC would have to bid 6% more than rival media groups for rights to show Premiership football.
Channel 4 and Five could also be affected if they stop paying BSkyB heavy charges to make sure that their channels can be seen only in the UK.
However, the planned merger between NTL and Virgin Mobile is the biggest danger to Sky and one analyst said at the weekend that the increased competition will drive up price, as will changes to the way the league sells its rights because broadcasters will have to make knockout bids for each individual package.
The hefty rise is due to the fact that the BBC and ITV broadcast unencrypted by satellite.
The two have been in dispute with Sky over the amount that it charges for encryption, which went up to £17m a year in ITV's case.
ITV has decided not to pay and want to persuade Channel 4 and Five to join them in creating a subscription-free Freesat service.
Unless Sky secures at least four of the six packages of 23 games currently on offer -- no broadcaster can buy more than five -- some of its 8m subscribers will leave, reports from the bank have shown.
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