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It is now six months since the outbreak of an evening newspaper war on London's streets. Homeward bound commuters cannot complain about a lack of a choice of read, with around 1.2 million evening papers being distributed, 75% of them free.

Associated's London Lite and News International's thelondonpaper still seem committed to a battle to the death, with the latter recently increasing its distribution by 100,000 copies. Yet there has to be a limit to how many evening papers can find readers before the advertising audience is diluted, or they end up discarded and unread.

News International insists there is still room for growth, citing the examples of Paris and Madrid where the markets sustain as many as five different free newspapers. But it may have been surprised by the apparent steadfastness of Associated in providing feisty competition.

Initially dismissed as a spoiler, many in the industry are changing their view about London Lite. Its design similarity to its Evening Standard stablemate is now seen as a positive, making it a familiar read, at least according to research commissioned by Associated.

Similar profiles

Nevertheless, some media buyers remain sceptical, especially when it comes to the "favourablity" score in the research, where the figures suggest that 66% of regular readers of thelondonpaper prefer to read London Lite.

Associated Newspapers insists that it made strenuous efforts to ensure that the data was "whiter than white". Its research company, Other Lines of Enquiry, was instructed not to approach people near merchandisers, or those carrying only one of the papers.

The profiles of each paper were similar, replicating the London Zone 1 universe almost exactly, although slightly more men read thelondonpaper (63% compared to 59%). This is shown by an apparent lack of differentiation between the products. Advertisers group them as "the London papers". The Lite research says 50% of people read both.

This raises questions about News International's geo-mapping strategy, claiming that its papers would only be read by its target audience of young, ABC1 urbanites. Yet, thelondonpaper is commended by media buyers for its creative solutions approach to advertising. Having been designed from scratch, it is unconstrained by traditional advertising methods and can be more innovative with formats.

Still, for advertisers, there remain doubts about the usefulness of the afternoon free model. Manning Gottlieb OMD press manager Michael Dean says: "Advertisers want to know whether it will add incremental coverage or merely continue to add frequency?" If you are simply reaching Metro readers on the way home, do you need to reaffirm the message? If so, how much is that worth? Furthermore, advertisers need to know that the papers are being read, and until National Readership Survey data is revealed this is difficult to tell.

At the outset of the war, it was widely predicted that only one of the papers would survive, with the favourite being thelondonpaper, since it seemed News International was more committed. After all, the London Lite may well be cannibalising sales of its paid-for sister title, the Evening Standard. The consensus now seems to be that there is room for both.

Conor MacLoughlin, head of regional press at Carat, says: "They've brought colour to a lifeless afternoon market. Both are strong titles and the competition is good for agencies and consumers. I'd like to see one strike out editorially."

Editorial evolution

No doubt the editorial content of the two papers will continue to evolve. For example, thelondonpaper may move away from celebrity content towards a more mature, male read, taking the fight ever more to the Standard. Meanwhile, London Lite is expected to consolidate on its core as a celebrity-driven entertainment-led version of the Standard.

Media buyers have also noticed differences in the two rivals' business strategies. Zed buying director Anthony Gibson-Watt says: "Thelondonpaper is more bullish in the market in the way that it is trading and moving forward, while London Lite is more realistic about its expectations of circulation and is more flexible with its trading."

So, maybe both will survive. But if they are to bring the sort of return on investment demanded of two such well-managed publishing groups, their future may lie in expanding, like Metro, outside of the Capital.

PAPER WAR TIMELINE

August 2006: Associated Newspapers stops printing Standard Lite. London Lite launches. It is branded a spoiler by News International. Evening Standard raises its price to 50p

September 2006: Thelondonpaper launches.

ABCs - thelondonpaper distributes 327,120 compared to London Lite's 359,389. News International cites "teething problems"

October 2006: Thelondonpaper wins the contract to distribute in Network Rail stations.

ABCs - thelondonpaper overtakes London Lite, leaving Associated Newspapers' freesheet 4,945 copies behind its figure of 377,525 - increasing its circulation by 15.4% month on month

November 2006: ABCs London Lite distributes 395,048, up 6.03% month on month, while thelondonpaper shoots up by 12.71% month on month to 425,508.

December 2006: Tfl scraps afternoon distribution contract on the Underground due to lack of interest.

Thelondonpaper's circulation falls by 3.43% month on month to 410,898, but is still higher than London Lite's 400,692

January 2006: Westminster Council demands help from both publishers to deal with the additional paper waste.

ABCs - London Lite remains stable, rising by just 0.7% to 400,977. Thelondonpaper's circulation rises by 6.19% to 436,345

February 2007: London Lite publishes research claiming that people prefer it to thelondonpaper. Thelondonpaper's circulation shoots up by 100,000.