Speaking in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Sir Martin said he thinks it will be a slow and steady climb out, rather than a V, W, or U-shaped recovery. He said he saw the situation improving in 2002 and again in 2003, but that it might not be until the following year that the world economy shows strong signs of recovery.
"I think it will be a slow and steady climb out rather than I think 2002 will be better than 2001. Then 2003 will be stronger than that, but I think you have to wait until 2004 for conditions to really strengthen. No doubt George Bush will want to go to the country with a strong economy and then you've got the Athens Olympic Games," he said.
The latest interview marks a downgrade of his own earlier predictions. Earlier this year, Sir Martin said that it was his personal view any "recovery will be slight and gradual and we will probably have to wait until 2003 to see more improvement".
In the Journal interview, Sir Martin said that while many have reported signs that the downturn was coming to an end, he said until today -- January through April -- "we haven't seen anything that leads us to believe that there's been a significant change".
As for World Cup, he did not believe that it would improve the situation much, highlighting the difficulty that has been experienced in selling.
"So my sense is that there's still uncertainty -- not indecision, but delay. You hear a lot about people winning new business, but then projects being postponed," he said.
He told the paper that the main issues holding back recovery were what he called the "evils of inflation" and rising unemployment in parts of southern Europe.
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