Raymond Snoddy on media: Rothermere's radio stake can unlock goldmine

The really interesting media company to watch in the next few months will be the Daily Mail and General Trust (DMGT) and its young chairman the Viscount Rothermere.

Everyone, including some of his own senior executives, expected the Viscount, with all those historic Rothermeres sitting on his shoulders, to succumb to temptation, give in to his destiny and overpay to buy The Daily Telegraph.

With a majority of the voting shares in his back pocket, the Viscount could have done whatever he liked. But he held back. It helped, of course, that if ever his resolve showed signs of weakening, his venture capital partners were there to ensure he did not go off the rails.

The question now is what happens to all the money that would have gone to Telegraph owner Hollinger International and what is the ultimate destination of Rothermere's 29.9% stake in GWR, owner of Classic FM.

The DMGT stake could be the chip that finally gets the roulette wheel of radio consolidation turning. Last year, the operators were lobbying relentlessly to enable just two players to own all of the commercial universe. Bingo. They did it, but these brave fellows have spent the past six months sitting on their hands and talking.

The only exception has been Emap's purchase of SMG's stake in Scottish Radio. The problem is very clear. Everyone is a buyer and no one, but no one, wants to sell. Eventually, somebody is going to crack and it is then that they might come to Rothermere's door.

He doesn't have to sell, but it is clear that the DMGT chairman has no intention of sitting on a minority GWR stake for too long. He will either sell or buy the entire train set. What is clear is that his Lordship considers the GWR stake a key that could unlock radio consolidation and will therefore be looking for a big premium. DMGT executives will be dusting off their pet projects and looking for funding. With margins on local radio higher than the average for commercial radio, we might not be too far away from the balloon going up.

One of the best investments of all could be right under Viscount Rothermere's nose - local newspapers.

With profit margins of 33% and gradually rising, Johnston Press has been demonstrating week-in and week-out what a good business the local press - particularly weekly newspapers - really is. Buying is nice where the competition authorities allow it, but investing in both content and modernising systems, although they may look unspectacular, can yield a strong dividend.

In a world awash with the products of the national and international media machines, marketers would be wise to keep an eye on the power of 'localness' and community as exemplified by regional newspapers and radio.

No one likes to use the terrible 'm' word, but some publications have something approaching a monopoly of local news generation, with household penetrations as high as 70%.

Some radio stations can even get more than 50% penetration - a fact that lies behind another bit of radio consolidation - ex-Jazz FM chairman Richard Wheatley's £45m purchase of Radio Investments. Owners GWR and Guardian Media were almost indecently happy about the price they got. But if there is anything in the 'localness' theory then Wheatley and his 22 stations could end up with the last laugh.

The aim is to create nothing less than a second tier of commercial radio and Wheatley will be able to continue mopping up little stations while the big beasts of the radio jungle sit eyeballing each other.

Maybe when the dust settles Lord Rothermere could consider buying up that second tier with some of the spare change earned from the lucrative disposal of the GWR stake.

30 SECONDS ON ... LOCAL NEWSPAPERS

- The highest paid-for circulation for a regional newspaper is Scotland's Sunday Post, which sells 530,168 copies a week.

- Berrow's Worcester Journal is the oldest local newspaper in the UK. It has been publishing since 1709.

- The five biggest players in local newspapers are: Johnston Press, Newsquest, Northcliffe Newspapers (owned by DMGT), Trinity Mirror and Archant.

- Regional press is the biggest advertising medium after TV, attracting £2.8bn worth of advertising in 2002. This is predicted to rise to £3bn this year.

- Local newspapers sometimes get dramatic scoops. The Weston & Somerset Mercury scored a double splash in July last year, securing an interview with the father of Euan Blair's girlfriend, plus coverage of Lord Archer's first public engagement after leaving prison.

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