Some believe we are now in for a period of relative consolidation. Certainly, in an ideal world, there would be at least a year or two of peace and quiet to allow everyone to regroup and work through the trends of the past few years and their implications for the market place. Unfortunately, it appears unlikely. While the outlines of the big picture are clear enough, there seems no shortage of new, intriguing challenges on the horizon.
The radio industry, for example, will soon have to give much more thought to the implications of downloading in all its forms, because there is clearly going to be an awful lot more of it going on.
This could boost the BBC by reducing the impact of commercial radio on its audience and thus its usefulness as a marketing tool.
The problem is that two trend lines could start diverging. For the BBC, downloading of its programmes, particularly those on Radio 4, could increase significantly. Conversely, unless the commercial radio industry is careful, it may find that what it has to offer can increasingly be substituted by music downloads.
At this stage, the incomplete numbers are modest. Since the BBC began offering such services just over a year ago, its programmes have been downloaded almost 500,000 times - a tiny fraction of the available live audience. Last year, more than 50,000 people downloaded its broadcast of the Reith Lectures and more than 170,000 other programmes such as In Our Time, while Fighting Talk and TX Unlimited on 1Extra have also generated significant interest.
One already hears about people of a certain age filling up the iPod they recieved for Christmas with a selection of their favourite BBC radio programmes to listen to as they walk or jog. The Radio 4 audience, in particular, may have the odd grey hair, but, as the station's controller, Mark Damazer, pointed out, they are adept at using the latest technology.
No one knows how extensive BBC downloading will become and no one is claiming that it will ever amount to more than a fraction of live listening - one of the great joys of radio. The point is that the BBC spends tens of millions making 'real' programmes that can have a considerable shelf-life in the way that radio phone-ins, chat shows and a computerised selection of the latest rock music rarely can.
There is a real advantage here, and one that will grow. This is despite the fact that those who download the broadcaster's shows will probably already be quintessential BBC listeners, with the technology locking the existing audience in for longer, rather than adding to it.
The latest Rajars show that the BBC has a 54% share of total listening. What if that were to rise at a time when commercial radio's numbers were falling because more youngsters preferred their own iPod selections?
There are already signs of stress on commercial radio-listening in the US and ClearChannel has cut the number of ads it airs to improve the listening experience.
Talk to well-known figures in commercial radio, and it is clear there is no room for complacency. Former Capital Radio DJ Chris Tarrrant, for example, regrets the passing of the big-personality radio presenters and believes this may not be smart business.
Gcap chairman Ralph Bernard, meanwhile, hopes that following the merger of Capital Radio and GWR, the commercial radio sector will one day be able compete more powerfully against the BBC by producing 'programmes.'
Commercial radio will have to give far more thought to making sure it offers more excitement than an iPod selection of the latest tunes. In a couple of years, marketeers will know exactly what audiences are listening to, once the fully electronic Rajar is born.
30 SECONDS ON ... PODCASTING.
- The growth in podcasting - subscribing to radio programmes, which are delivered to your PC - is such that the term 'podcast' has been added to the Oxford English Dictionary.
- Most of the statistics on podcast focus on the US market, which has taken off in the past year. Research by The Pew Internet and American Life Project claims 22m US adults own an iPod or MP3 player, with 6m listening to podcasts.
- Jupiter Research has forecast a rise in US digital music-player sales from 12.4m in 2004 to 56m by 2010.
- The BBC has started a podcasting trial across 20 radio shows. Other broadcasters to embrace the technology include ABC News and Disney.
- Since August, the White House podcasts the US President's weekly address to the nation.
- The first podcast from space took place on 8 August.