It is with some pride that we can announce today the creation of a new media consultancy dedicated to forecasting the future of television - Snoddy & Rogers Associates.
Maybe it's better to admit at the outset that there are no associates at the moment, and that the 'Rogers' of the title is my mother's maiden name.
The key thing is that the company has developed a new form of economic forecasting - particularly effective in the future of television advertising - that will never get it wrong. The potential is astonishing.
The problem with existing methods can be seen clearly from an Oliver & Ohlbaum Associates assessment for Ofcom's great survey of public-service broadcasting (PSB).
The consultancy devised a limited range of scenarios, including one that shows television advertising virtually collapsing by 2012, down to just 拢520m from 拢3.16bn after radical fragmentation of the market. More benign outcomes saw TV advertising falling less sharply, and companies' online earnings soaring to more than 拢600m.
The flaw here is that there are not enough scenarios. It would be better to cover every eventuality, including the possibility that TV advertising will rise by 2020 to 拢4bn (if the programmes get much better), or collapse to zero (if the programmes turn out to be really crap).
No mistakes could be made, and no one would feel left out, because they can pick the scenario that suits their interests best.
Ofcom has taken a different approach and offered only four options for meeting the PSB deficit. The regulator hedged its bets on how big the deficit will be by 2012 - between 拢145m and 拢235m - to keep PSB in addition to the BBC.
Assuming the gap is only 拢145m, we are talking about quite a small percentage of overall revenues of the UK broadcasting sector.
The Ofcom research is difficult to get your head around. One journalist came out of last week's press conference declaring himself 'brain dead'.
However, highlighting a few niggles and conflicts might be in order. Ofcom wants to see commercial competition for PSB. Why, therefore, should this excellent principle not apply to regional news and production in general, and ITV in particular?
Does it make sense to limit the licence fee income available to the BBC - an organisation that, with the usual imperfections, still delivers PSB in spades - and hand it over to an untried and possibly bureaucratic system?
Has Ofcom allowed for the propensity of British broadcasters to behave like pessimistic farmers, fearing the worst while looking for state handouts? It is telling that the minute Channel 4 faced a genuine financial problem, with the downturn in advertising revenue, it was able to cut costs by 拢25m this year and 拢50m the next.
Not nearly enough attention has been given to one of Ofcom's options, the possibility of an industry levy to help meet a PSB deficit. It would be difficult to impose on internet and social networking sites, but the profitable pay-TV community should be able to pay a levy on after-tax profits.
On Friday, culture secretary Andy Burnham stepped into this morass with the clear suggestion that he has not fallen for all the self-serving rubbish. 'Public-service broadcasting is not fatally damaged,' he said. 'Ofcom's report is a prescription, not the last rites.'
More research is clearly needed on the financial benefits of co-operation, and Snoddy & Rogers Associates are ready to go. Just give us the number you want and, unlike other consultancies, we'll come up with a plausible scenario or two.
- Raymond Snoddy is a media journalist and presenter of BBC TV's Newswatch
30 SECONDS ON ... OLIVER & OHLBAUM ASSOCIATES
- Oliver & Ohlbaum Associates was founded in 1995, and offers strategic advice and consumer intelligence in the media, entertainment and sports industries.
- In 1990, the company predicted that it was 'only a matter of time before the UK gets its first 拢1m prize quiz'. Eight years later, Who Wants to Be a Millionaire? launched, and has become the biggest international TV franchise and is broadcast in more than 100 countries.
- O&O claims it has 'been involved with most of the major developments and initiatives in the media, entertainment and sport sectors since 1995', and to offer 'understanding of the most up-to-date, relevant economic theory, financial modelling and forecasting technique'.
- Clients include the BBC, MTV, Guardian Media Group, Five, Channel 4 and ITV.
- The company produced the Prospects for UK Independent TV Production to 2010 report in 2006, and Prospects for European TV Content to 2012 last year.