Raymond Snoddy on media: Mail looks most likely victor in Telegraph tussle

Only one topic is exciting the newspaper industry at the moment. The big questions are who will be the new owner of The Daily Telegraph and what will the implications be for the other players?

Clearly there must be some sort of life left in an industry in which even a newspaper of more mature manifestations and an uncertain hold on sales attracts such interest.

As bidding nears £700m, venture capital group 3i, one of the final three bidders, may find it increasingly difficult to make the numbers add up.

If it does, you can be sure its adviser David Montgomery will not be far behind with a cost-cutting programme.

Existing management and staff might fare better with one of the other two players - the Barclay brothers or Viscount Rothermere's Daily Mail and General Trust (DMGT). Both have a history of investing in editorial through thick and thin.

As we enter the final cut-throat stage of the auction, even DMGT executives admit privately that if Sir David and Sir Frederick Barclay really want The Daily Telegraph as a pinnacle for their career, they can have it.

They are private businessman beholden to no one, apart from their banks, and can choose to pay an irrational price if they wish. They could even reduce the pain by selling The Scotsman and merging The Business with The Sunday Telegraph.

However, throughout their career the twins have always liked a bargain and it is not certain they will be prepared to throw aside the habit of a lifetime and pay trophy prices.

Rothermere, who enters the final straight in the lead, could yet pull off a coup. Conventional wisdom says the government will never let the owners of the nasty, Labour-baiting Daily Mail get away with it, but the government would still have to provide a regulatory rationale for its actions.

If the Office of Fair Trading and Ofcom were to recommend that such a merger be allowed - with conditions - it would be very difficult for DTI secretary Patricia Hewitt to block the deal.

In any case, it is not entirely obvious why a Telegraph-Daily Mail tie-up should be blocked. The merged companies' share of the national newspaper market would be considerably smaller than that of News International, owner of The Times. ITV plc is allowed to control 51% of TV advertising in the UK and the government has decreed that all commercial radio cannot be owned by less than three companies.

In addition, both newspapers are Tory, so a Telegraph-Mail company would not change the range of political opinion in the press. And if anyone were afraid of the 'Torygraph' losing its political spots, undertakings could be sought and given. Anyway, the plan is for DMGT to take a minority stake, with venture capital group CVC in the driving seat.

CVC would appoint an independent chairman and set editorial parameters.

The other big issue is whether a Telegraph-Mail combo could use its enhanced position to squeeze advertisers.

It's a danger, but here too DMGT has a potential remedy.

One of the conditions of the ITV merger was that Ofcom should appoint an ombudsman to adjudicate on complaints. The first report on the activities of David Connolly suggests he hasn't exactly been overworked. He would have plenty of time to deal with advertising disputes.

Regulators might not be too amused, however, if it turns out that DMGT has a pre-emption right to buy all of The Daily Telegraph from CVC in a few years' time. We will soon know the answer. Then it will be time to move on to an even more interesting question. Will Lord Black of Crossharbour, former owner of The Daily Telegraph, end up in jail?

- Raymond Snoddy is media editor of The Times

30 SECONDS ON ... THE DAILY TELEGRAPH

- The Daily Telegraph was founded in 1855 by Colonel Arthur Sleigh to air a personal grievance against the Duke of Cambridge. The newspaper soon foundered and was taken over by Joseph Moses Levy, the owner of The Sunday Times.

- By the following year, under the slogan 'the largest, best and cheapest newspaper in the world', the paper was outselling The Times.

- At this time, the title was a supporter of liberal causes, such as the campaign against capital punishment and reform of the House of Lords.

- But it also exhibited a populist editorial approach, with headlines including 'A child devoured by pigs' and 'Shocking occurrence: five men smothered in a gin vat'.

- The newspaper's political affiliation changed to the Conservative Party in the 30s. Its proprietor Sir John Berry was a strong supporter of Sir Winston Churchill.

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