All had seemed alarmingly quiet as Kelvin MacKenzie trousered his 拢7m gains from the sale of The Wireless Group and wandered off in search of new media mayhem. All there was to contemplate was a bleak vista of falling advertising revenues and collapsing share prices.
Now we have a decent bust-up involving GCap, the biggest commercial radio group, and Ofcom, with more than a hint of internecine radio industry warfare, and a session with m'learned friends to follow.
It all came out of a relatively clear sky at last week's Radio Festival in Edinburgh. GCap chairman Ralph Bernard had a prepared speech to give, but suddenly tore it up and let rip instead.
He had been incensed by the performance of Ofcom chief executive Stephen Carter the previous evening. Carter had discussed the already-known fact that the regulator was consulting on the possibility that one, and possibly two, new national radio multiplexes could be awarded; additional spectrum was being released. In plain English, that could mean up to 20 new national digital stations in existence by the end of next year.
Good news, surely? More choice for the consumer and more business for the commercial radio industry. Not entirely.
Carter was clearly aware of the sensitivities involved, when he noted that more capacity and choice would not necessarily be welcomed by established companies. In the bit that was almost certainly responsible for getting Bernard into the ring raining blows, Carter went on to make himself perfectly clear. In a dilemma between competing industrial interests and additional consumer choice, Ofcom will always side with the consumer.
The GCap chairman did not have to be told twice. He had already established to his satisfaction that Ofcom plans to go ahead with the multiplexes, with a formal decision due as early as September. For Bernard, such a decision would not just be legally questionable but morally wrong.
When no one would invest a penny in digital radio, Bernard, then chief executive of GWR, laid his reputation and a significant part of his company on the line to launch Digital One. He says he did so in the express hope that one day the company would benefit from such a risky investment, because the then-regulator, the Radio Authority, had advertised the multiplex on the basis of it being the only one available. The licence was for 12 years, with an automatic 12-year extension. If it worked, the payback over time would be considerable.
Three years later, the market, created to a large extent by Bernard and GWR, will be swamped by Johnny-come-latelies who ran a mile in the early days.
It is a difficult issue where everyone has a respectable case. GCap can ask how a regulator can tear up the terms negotiated by its predecessor and how long-term investments can be made on such a basis. Ofcom can say, as it does, that things change and no company can ever be insured against such a risk. Besides, consumer interests and wider choice is almost always the right side to come down on.
The row will be made more entertaining by the approach of Bernard's rivals.
A taste came from Dee Ford, group managing director of Emap Radio, which seems happy to line up behind Ofcom in the interests of consumer choice, because it suits its interests.
This exquisite little package will almost certainly make its way to the High Court in the form of a judicial review. Bernard may have a strong moral case, but the GCap chief should remember that lawyers don't do morals, and judicial reviews in the media are notoriously difficult to win.
30 SECONDS ON ... OFCOM'S DIGITAL RADIO REVIEW
- Ofcom has stated its statutory duty as furthering 'the interests of citizens in relation to communications matters; and to further the interests of consumers in relevant markets, where appropriate by promoting competition'.
- The digital radio review has been instigated in light of the Broadcasting Act 1996, which obliges the culture, media and sport secretary to keep its development under review. It covers the provision of radio multiplex services, digital sound programme services and the possession of equipment capable of receiving digital services.
- As well as the national multiplexes mentioned in his speech, Stephen Carter said Ofcom proposed three blocks of spectrum for local multiplexes, giving all UK regions at least one digital multiplex, providing 69% of stations with DAB coverage.