'Camelot is a shoo-in,' said Sir Richard Branson, by way of explanation as to why he has finally given up on his lottery obsession and decided to concentrate on his 'broadband, phone, mobile and telly vision'.
It must have been difficult to say such words through gritted teeth after two bitter, and litigious, failed bids. But Sir Richard has got it absolutely right. The fact that Camelot now also has a tie-up with BSkyB must have rubbed more salt in the wound.
The issue of how Camelot has managed to transform itself from being on the brink of disaster last time around into a near-certainty on this occasion is instructive for everyone in business. Camelot's performance has been so solid that all but one of the many rumoured rivals fell at the wayside and did not make it to the finishing line.
Where does that leave Sugal & Damani, which operates lotteries in India and submitted a 35,000-page application on Friday? In an age in which the remnants of British Steel are Indian-owned and international news group Reuters has 1600 staff in Bangalore, the company cannot be ignored. But Camelot has spent £20m on its bid, while Sugal & Damani spent 20m rupees - about £230,000.
The reason that Camelot is such a 'shoo-in' is the 2012 London Olympics. The National Lottery's Olympics game is the only thing standing in the way of a financing fiasco for the government - one even worse than that it has already landed itself with. So give the National Lottery to a relatively unknown Indian company in the run-up to the London Olympics? I don't think so. It is always good if you can make your business indispensable to government in some way.
Sugal & Damani would have had to spend at least 100m rupees trying to establish its reputation in the UK to have stood the slightest chance.
By way of contrast, Camelot's 'corporate' advertising to opinion-makers, under the copy line 'The lottery numbers that really count', has been impeccable.
It has returned more money to good causes than any other lottery in the world, while offering the biggest prize in European history - £125m last February in the EuroMillions draw.
Apart from riding its luck on the Olympics front, a few obvious characteristics define the Camelot success story. One is to find an effective chief executive, as Camelot has in Dianne Thompson, and to stick with them through thick and thin. Thompson has now committed herself to staying with the organisation until after the Olympics.
With an effective chief executive and stable management, you then set about reinventing the business to try to reverse what appeared to be inevitably declining sales. In this case, it meant coming up with a succession of new games, including EuroMillions, backed by powerful advertising.
Then, when you have to bid for another franchise, you set up a separate team in another building to reinvent the business all over again. You come up with new ideas, such as launching a worldwide lottery offering jackpots that could top £500m.
Camelot is a strictly regulated company running a 'monopoly' franchise. But the scale of change and competitive threats now facing all media and communications organisations means they could learn a great deal from it.
The most important lesson of all is the need to create an internal team with the freedom to challenge everything, and to try to reinvent the business every few years.
It would be cheaper than bringing in the management consultants and less disruptive than being broken up by venture capitalists.
30 SECONDS ON ... SUGAL & DAMANI
- Founded more than 30 years ago, Sugal & Damani is the leading government-licensed lottery operator in India, with a turnover of more than 40bn rupees (£465.2m) and more than 20,000 lottery terminals.
- The group has expanded beyond its core gaming operations to encompass businesses as diverse as IT, travel, leasing and finance, property, jewellery and engineering. The group believes the fact that it creates its own lottery terminal technology places it in a stronger position than operators that rely on external technology partners.
- The group contributes part of its business earnings to philanthropic activities and supports a number of charities engaged in public service, particularly in health and education.
- When registering its intention to bid for the UK licence last August, Sugal & Damani admitted it lacked local knowledge and said it would be looking for British partners.