Last week's news that Rajar will not introduce electronic measurement of radio audiences in 2007 raised few eyebrows in the industry.
Former talkSPORT boss Kelvin MacKenzie's long-running spat with Rajar, culminating in a failed court case, ensured the issue of audience measurement has dominated the headlines.
There are signs that his frustration with the old diary measurement system, and his desire to introduce an electronic alternative immediately, are not shared by the broader industry, which favours a cautious approach.
But MacKenzie's one-man crusade has damaged the credibility of the diary system, undermining radio advertising's trading system.
However, Rajar is refusing to be rushed into change. Instead of a swift transition to an electronic measurement system, it has pledged to improve the existing paper diary system, which was introduced in 1998. In addition, the radio group is investing 拢3m in research over the next two years, which will include a two-year trial of electronic meters in conjunction with TV measurement body BARB.
With the industry facing declining ad revenues and more competition from media such as online, agencies and radio firms are concerned about introducing an electronic system prematurely.
'The radio market is not as stable as other media and, if there were to be problems with the new system, radio would be one of the first media to come off the schedule,' says Steve Coteman, radio manager at ZenithOptimedia.
Those concerns are echoed by the industry, and investing a reported 拢12m in an electronic system is not necessarily top of the agenda for cash-strapped radio companies. GCap Media, the UK's biggest commercial radio station, this month revealed a 26% decline in advertising in April and May, after a 50% decline in the January to March period. Analysts do not expect this trend to reverse, despite a bold strategy of slashing advertising at the station.
However, Peter Cory, a director of the Radio Advertising Bureau, says that investment is not the issue, pointing to the fact that commercial radio pays 'considerably more' for its research programmes than other advertising media.
The trouble with maintaining the current paper system is that some agency planners believe its problems are myriad, the biggest being misattribution.
There are varying theories on the impact this has on the market - from falsely giving a bigger share of listening to bigger brands which are front of mind, to consumers not admitting what they listen to. As one buyer explains: 'Personally I wouldn't admit to listening to Johnny Vaughn, and there are probably just as many people saying they are constantly tuned to Radio 4 when in reality they are channel hoppers.'
While the major radio companies have a wide variety of stations, which may offset this brand misattribution, insiders say that companies that have only one radio brand - such as Virgin - are particularly vulnerable.
But, until a new system is introduced, these beliefs have little to back them up.
There is a genuine feeling within the industry that more time is needed to create an accurate and reliable electronic system. Howard Bareham, managing partner for radio at MindShare, says there is no point introducing technology that is not ready just to tick a box - though he adds that not even time might deliver the perfect system. 'Ultimately, no research system is going to get everything right; everything - from BARB to NRS - is open to error,' he says.
Slow but sure
MacKenzie's long-running battle with Rajar created a sense of expectation and a belief that change was both necessary and imminent. However, Rajar claims it is at the forefront of radio-measurement technology, and the only country in Europe to adopt electronic measurement - through a wristwatch - is Switzerland, which has a much smaller radio market.
Cathy Lowe, head of radio at PHD, thinks Rajar is right not to bow to pressure to introduce an electronic system prematurely. 'You're looking at the introduction of a huge complex change,' she says. 'They have to ensure not only that people wear the pagers, but work out how to report the findings.'
Sally De La Bedoyere, managing director of Rajar, says at present there is no software to average weekly listening figures with the electronic system. She also points to compliance issues, such as the fact that less than a third of the test sample are carrying the electronic device every day for a seven-day period.
She says tests have thrown up the problem that just as consumers may forget to update the paper diary system, so they may not remember to switch on an electronic device. Crucially, researchers found this was most likely to happen during the key breakfast period.
The debate is unlikely to lose momentum, and De La Bedoyere admits that the electronic system may not be ready for two years.
If Ofcom's plan to auction a second digital multiplex this year comes to fruition, the UK radio market will become even more complex, making the smooth introduction of a reliable trading system ever more important.
If companies such as Capital FM's parent GCap Media are to recover from disastrously sliding advertising revenues, they will need to put much more pressure on Rajar over the coming year to deliver a solution, as the paper diary system's credibility will only continue to fall away.
TIMELINE - RAJAR'S MEASUREMENT PROGRESS
December 1992: Rajar approaches Radiocontrol and asks to be kept informed of developments in its 'wristwatch' metering technology.
March 1993: Rajar does the same with Arbitron and its pager technology.
December 2003: Sally De La Bedoyere appointed as managing director of Rajar.
January 2004: Rajar invests 拢500,000 in testing second-generation audiometers.
March 2004: The Wireless Group begins legal proceedings against Rajar on the grounds that its testing of electronic measurement is 'fatally flawed'.
June 2004: Rajar launches consultation process to gain a consensus on how the industry's measurement system should be developed as part of a move toward electronic testing.
December 2004: The Wireless Group's court case is thrown out, with the judge saying the allegations 'did not correspond with the facts'.
May 2006: Rajar announces a joint venture with BARB to establish a electronic measurement panel using Arbitron PPM. The trial will run for two years.