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As the radio industry prepares for Ofcom to advertise a second digital multiplex later this month, the talk is all about who is set to bid.

The new service would sit alongside the first, which was awarded to the Digital One consortium - largely owned by GCap - in 1999.

Last week, Media Week reported that Chrysalis Radio was in talks with Channel 4 about joining the broadcaster's consortium, along with Sky, Universal Music, IPC and CanWest, who are understood to have signed up already.

The Guardian Media Group has ruled itself out of any partnership while Emap, GCap, Virgin and UTV have yet to state their intentions, simply saying they are "interested".

A few months ago, rumours were rife that a series of major radio groups were preparing to form a rival consortium and suggesting that C4 was interested in the multiplex, more for video-to-mobile transmission, than for radio.

Industry insiders last week claimed there had been a U-turn on that plan, as C4 was seen as the best bet, given its "as good as unlimited income" and its readiness to embrace technological advances, seen most recently in the signing of 4Radio to virtual online world, Second Life.

GCap's co-ownership of Digital One has put restrictions on it becoming a major shareholder in the second multiplex. However, the consensus is that any owners of national radio brands will be keen to ensure they have a route to market on the new multiplex.

Strong position

Anthony de Larrinaga, media analyst at SG Securities, says: "Anyone with a quasi-national brand, such as Kiss, Magic or Heart, who owns the multiplex, is going to be in a stronger position to ensure their stations are represented on them, which is certainly important.

"GCap won't want to be excluded. So if it owns it - with others - it will have a certain control over what stations are carried."

However, groups with a major UK presence are not the only ones that are interested. Despite appearing set to exit UK analogue radio after failing to win licences, Australian broadcaster Macquarie is rumoured to be interested in an investment capacity.

French media group Lagardere has long been known to be looking at the multiplex, but has not made any concrete moves yet.

With the Telegraph Media Group's well-publicised move towards digital technology of late, some industry players suggest it too is interested in a potential deal.

"A lot of brands will be wanting to move out of existing media areas at the moment, and with the Telegraph going so digital, it would certainly make sense," says one media agency commentator.

Shaun Gregory, development director at the group and a former Emap radio executive, did not rule out a move towards digital radio, but neither would he confirm that it was on the cards.

There is clearly still a lot to play for, with bids not required until at least March next year, but some industry figures still hope at least one rival to C4's bid will emerge.

David Mansfield, former chief executive of GCap and now director of media investment group Ingenious, says: "The Government is essentially advertising this licence and C4 is owned by the Government. It would be a sad moment for radio if no one else was going to pitch for it. There is something slightly uncomfortable with the Government owning more of our media."

Judgement call

Political issues aside, do the people who matter consider further digital DAB radio opportunities vital enough to be worth spending their hard-earned cash on?

John Myers, managing director of GMG Radio, thinks perhaps not, and he is not convinced that a rival bid will emerge.

"My guess is some people have decided there is enough digital now. They are already contributing a significant amount and there is no benefit to putting more money into it when commercial radio has bigger fish to fry. That's not to say we don't think it won't be successful, but you cannot be on every platform."

With many radio groups already feeling the pinch of an advertising recession and migration of spend into new media, it seems few can afford a second gamble on digital when the first has yet to pay out.

HISTORY OF MULTIPLEX

- The first national digital multiplex was advertised in 1998 and awarded in 1999 to a consortium owned by GWR and NTL, called Digital One

- The multiplex, which covers 85% of the country, has seven stations - Classic FM, Virgin Radio, TalkSport, Core, Capital Life, Oneword and Planet Rock - and will soon be joined by GCap's new jazz station

- According to Rajar results for the third quarter of 2006, Planet Rock had 422,000 listeners, Oneword had 104,000, Capital Life 79,000 and Core 128,000

- The remaining digital stations are also available on analogue, so their digital listeners alone are not calculated

- The second digital multiplex is scheduled to be advertised by Ofcom later this month and bids must be in by March, with an award expected next summer, ready for the first stations to go on air early in 2008

- The multiplex will carry 1,200 kilobits (kbps), which will allow a range of stations, depending on how it is divided. A stereo music channel, for example, will require 128kbps, while a mono speech station will need only 64kbps.