Whether they admit it formally or not, a number of 'for sale' signs are popping up. Can anyone be confident about predicting the future of SMG's Virgin Radio or the radio interests of either Emap or Chrysalis?
The only stable points are GCap, which, although struggling compared with the original vision of the Capital-GWR merger, is at least committed to the future of radio, and Guardian Media Group (GMG). In the wake of GMG's purchase of Saga Radio, the timing does not seem great for either it or GCap to embark on grand acquisitions.
It now seems inevitable that SMG and Virgin Radio will fall into the lap of UTV, a company that is serious about expanding in radio. The longer the deal takes, the bigger the share of the action that the tenacious Belfast-based group is likely to take.
With tribes of management consultants crawling over the deal, it is impossible to predict the outcome. These characters tend to like action and are almost required to come up with radical proposals to justify their hefty fees. So don't rule out a break-up of Emap - all in the interests of maximising shareholder value, of course.
As for Chrysalis, it should be very wary about considering selling off its prize asset at a low point in investor confidence in the traditional media. Unfortunately, its chairman, Chris Wright, has previous form here. He was reluctantly persuaded to sell his TV interests for £45m. Last year an expanded All3Media was sold to Permira for £320m. It would be unfortunate if Chrysalis, which always claimed it wanted to be a consolidator in radio, were to repeat its mistake and end up as a modest music publisher.
Confront Andrew Harrison, chief executive of commercial radio trade body the RadioCentre, about the medium's future, and his answer is interesting. A lifelong marketer at senior perches which have included Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola and Nestle Rowntree, Harrison acknowledges the current instability in the industry and, naturally, hopes it will work its way through as soon as possible. But he is still irredeemably optimistic about the medium, which is probably a good thing, given his assignment.
Here is the sort of internal brazier at which they warm their hands during cold days at the RadioCentre: last year's slowdown does not seem to be part of any long-term trend, and adspend is set to continue roughly in line with such things as gross domestic product and company profits.
The argument goes that in terms of the adspend cake, radio has held up well against the stampede to digital, compared with what its 'fair share' ought to have been. Based on Group M data covering 2002 to 2007, radio has held on to 90% of what would have been expected, according to RadioCentre - about the same as cinema. The only medium that has outperformed against its fair share is outdoor, on 113%. Conversely, ad revenue for newspapers and B2B magazines are down by more than 20% on expectations.
For Harrison, the killer point is that radio is uniquely well positioned to sit on whatever digital platform emerges in future. Combine that with that old point about being able to do something else, such as drive a car, while consuming the medium, and it bodes well for listening figures.
So well, in fact, that it might be sensible for any potential departees from the industry to have a quick word with Harrison before they decide to make management consultants or venture capitalists even richer.
30 SECONDS ON ... COMMERCIAL RADIO
- About 13.3m adults listen to national commercial radio every week, according to this month's Rajars.
- Local commercial services take a 76% share of all local listening in the UK.
- 71% of Londoners tune in to commercial radio every week, compared with 56% for the BBC, giving it a 53% share of listening in the capital.
- Commercial radio has a 54% share of listening in the key 15- to 44-year-old demographic, with 72% listening to commercial radio every week.
- The sector has also posted its biggest lead over Radio 1 for the singles charts in two years, with 442,000 listeners.
- The last-quarter results revealed record figures for ABC1 adults and housewives.
- Among 15- to 24-year-olds, commercial radio has its highest reach since the second quarter of 2004, up 4.3% from last year.
- Commercial radio accounted for 62% of all digital-only hours.