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There is real concern in the government that a combination of a shortage of Parliamentary time and growing opposition in the Lords to the foreign ownership and Channel 5 provisions could see the Bill off. The concern is so great that contingency plans are being explored to see how much could be preserved by other means, such as secondary legislation.

Bluff and counter-bluff will be very much the order of the day and there will be two months of wheeling and dealing before the outcome is clear.

But at this moment there is more than a finite chance that the Carlton-Granada merger will be off for the foreseeable future, that Americans will not be owning ITV any time soon and that the expensively assembled Ofcom will have to be disbanded.

The problem is the intransigence of the government. For reasons that continue to mystify, it believes the foreign ownership of ITV and allowing large newspaper groups such as News International and Trinity Mirror to own C5 are at the intellectual core of the Bill.

No evidence has been produced to prove the assertion that US ownership of ITV will mean more investment in the UK broadcasting industry. The opposite is much more likely through the repatriation of profits.

In the Commons the government guillotined any debate. In the Lords the government is making little attempt to explain itself and is simply saying "This is how things are going to be".

Their Lordships do not like being treated in such a way. The combination of such government arrogance and the growing opposition in the Lords could prove an explosive mixture. It is possible that the Lords will harrumph a bit and back down at the end or that the Tories will combine with the Labour loyalists to snuff out opposition. It is equally possible that the government will compromise to save the many good and sensible things in the Bill.

An obvious thing to do would be to ask Ofcom to conduct a review of the likely effects of US ownership before implementing such a controversial move. A toughening of the rules on cross-promotion between terrestrial and satellite TV could take a lot of the sting out of the 'Murdoch conspiracy theory' that C5 could simply be used as a promotional vehicle for Sky.

The next few weeks are going to be very entertaining as the government tries to deal with the threat. The clock is ticking and to be absolutely sure of getting its legislation through, the Bill has to have completed all its stages by the third week of July. If it fails to meet this deadline, survival depends on a 'spill-over' session in early-autumn.

It's now largely up to the Lords. They like to think of themselves as the backstop that prevents bad legislation. They should prove it by demonstrating to the government that they are prepared to block bad clauses in the Bill.

After all, nobody ever died for the lack of a flawed Communications Bill.