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Who’d be an early adopter? Don’t these people ever learn from their

premature enthusiasms? Their attics must be fascinating, stuffed to the

rafters with Sinclair C5s, laser disc players, Philips 2000 video

recorders, squarials and boxes full of remote controls that have long

since lost the tool they were assigned to.

But, of course, they are already off in pursuit of the latest novelty,

never questioning the astonishing expense of being a pioneer. Successful

new technologies have a habit of getting cheaper quite quickly if you

have the patience (which the early adopter doesn’t). I understand, for

example, that the cost of computer power has come down by a factor of

8000 in the past 30 years. If the equivalent were true in the car

market, by the way, a Jaguar would cost pounds 2 and go 1000 miles on a

thimble of petrol, but that’s another story.

The early adopters of digital television may be wondering why the more

circumspect, ’late’ adopters are being given their set-top boxes for

nothing, but on second thoughts, they are almost certainly out there

scouring the high streets for a digital radio. Never mind that there is

nothing to listen to, or that a digital radio will set them back pounds

500, it is the early adopter’s buzz to get in there at the head of the

queue.

These tunnel-visioned nutters must, however, give the consortia now

bidding for the digital radio franchises a faint glimmer of hope.

Goodness knows, there is little else to get excited about in digital

radio at the moment.

But radio has come a long way in the past few years. The number of

stations has grown rapidly to more than 270, and the medium, astutely

marketed, now accounts for pounds 5 out of every pounds 100 spent on

advertising in the UK.

Isn’t it ready for the digital revolution just like its colourful big

brother, telly?

I wonder. The great strength of radio is its simplicity: no pictures, or

- as Radio Luxembourg used to sell it - ’pictures in the mind’.

Astonishingly, one-third of all listening is to AM and long wave

stations, so superior quality reception doesn’t seem to be a

prerequisite for listeners.

Then there is radio’s other great defining quality: it’s happiness to

take second place to driving, eating, ironing, cooking, chatting,

reading, gardening - whatever. The average household has five radio sets

already, instant accompaniment to life. One of the greatest benefits of

digital is interactivity: but will listeners really want to interact

with their radio sets?

The other great difference between radio and television in the digital

stakes is that while digital television really will extend choice for

many, the radio listener is already well-served. What role for digital

then?

Of course the truth is that the bidders for digital radio aren’t

expecting an instant explosion of consumer interest. They are putting

down seed corn for the future - probably the ten-year horizon rather

than the five-year one. When the opportunity eventually comes, and

digital radio sets are a fiver a piece, they will be best-placed to reap

the harvest.

This is the sort of early adoption I can relate to, but for radio

advertisers in the next few years, the best advice is probably not to

hold your breath.