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Over the August Bank Holiday, there will have been far fewer shelves erected and wallpaper pasted in the nation's homes than in recent years.

It seems the boom is over for the £1.6bn DIY sector.

The reasons are manifold, and most are out of DIY retailers' control, which has led Verdict Research to predict that the sector will suffer its first decline in consumer expenditure this year. This follows a decade of outperformance, driven by a strong property market and favourable economic backdrop.

The long-term economics, demographics (fewer middle-aged men) and social change (lack of DIY skills) are working against the sector, but analysts question whether the major players are implementing the right strategies in response.

Last week, market leader B&Q announced it was making 400 redundancies at its head office and would be restructuring its business at a cost of £12m. Chief executive Ian Cheshire said the cuts were made to 'improve customer service and grow sales'.

The Kingfisher-owned retailer has been one of the sector's poorest performers; second-placed Homebase has fared better, which Seymour Pierce retail analyst Richard Ratner attributes to good management at its owner, GUS.

B&Q's problems, says Ratner, are being magnified by Cheshire's lack of experience in running a major UK retail business, having previously worked on the international side of Kingfisher's business. Gerry Murphy, Kingfisher's group chief executive and a former chief executive of media group Carlton Communications, also lacks a retail pedigree.

Female folly

Alex Kuropatwa, joint managing director of Delaney Lund Knox Warren (DLKW), claims B&Q may have made a mistake earlier this year when it ditched its staff-focused advertising after nine years in favour of a more female-friendly campaign, created by JWT.

He argues that as there are now fewer people who have had DIY skills passed down to them, customers value the presence of knowledgeable staff to talk them through a project.

Halifax, one of DLKW's clients, has used staff in its ads to good effect and Kuropatwa adds that the brand personality created by campaigns such as these are worth holding on to.

'Trying to pursue female customers is much riskier,' he says. 'B&Q had built its brand proposition on accessibility, humanity and great value, and has lost quite a lot by moving away from that.'

Kuropatwa adds that a shift in the retailer's strategy from everyday low pricing (EDLP) to a promotion-based model has diluted perceptions of it as a retailer where consumers will always get good value.

Homebase, meanwhile, has always had a more female-oriented positioning and many of its stores now have mezzanine areas stocking 'home-enhancement' products to create a more aspirational shopping environment.

All the players in the sector are chasing share in a declining market, as a slowdown in the housing market hits hard. 'Housing has been key in the disappointing performance,' says Gavin Rothwell, a senior retail analyst at Verdict Research. He explains that house sales are down by a fifth on last year, so fewer people are doing up properties to improve their chances of selling, or undertaking DIY on those they have just bought.

Much-reduced house-price growth is another factor, says Rothwell. A loft conversion, for example, will not put as much value on a home as it did last year. Lastly, he cites mortgage equity withdrawal, which is running at 60% of 2004 levels, as another hurdle. 'A substantial proportion of this is spent on home improvement, and this drop has had a heavy impact on the leading retailers.'

Beyond the baby-boomers

Ipsos UK senior director Steve Messenger predicts a far-from-rosy future for traditional DIY due to the onset of an ageing population.

'Most DIY is done by middle-aged people. At the moment there is a big bulge of them because the baby-boomers are reaching their peak period for doing DIY. That will continue for 10 years, but after that they will be too old and there are not as many young people to replace them.'

He also raises the point that there has been an influx of skilled workers from the former Eastern Bloc who will carry out the work at far cheaper rates than was previously possible. This means there is less of an incentive to undertake DIY as a necessity, rather than a hobby.

Messenger predicts that DIY retailers may move further into the trade side, which has stood up slightly better than the consumer end, and into the home-enhancement sector, led by IKEA. The gardening segment of these retailers' businesses may also benefit as the baby-boomers move into old age, he adds.

However, conditions on the trade side are not much easier. Building materials group Travis Perkins plans to shed 150 jobs in the wake of a 7.4% like-for-like fall in sales at retailer Wickes, which it recently acquired.

The general feeling among retail experts is that the sector will avoid a full-blown recession and could start to pick up once house prices do the same, but it is clear that in the long term, the DIY retailers will need to refurbish their game plans.