The Havas-owned agency says that injury to super-striker Wayne Rooney's metatarsal could severely impact on the England team's chances of proceeding through the tournament, causing less interest in the televised games.
MPG has forecast the effect on the advertising revenues using data from the last two major international football tournaments, Euro 2004 and the 2002 World Cup.
MPG noted that in both tournaments a severe drop-off in TV ratings had occurred after England had been knocked out.
In Euro 2004, UK audience ratings fell by 71% in the game following England's elimination by Portugal in the quarter-finals. In the last World Cup the drop was 79%, immediately following England's quarter-final exit to Brazil.
Jim McDonald, head of broadcast at MPG, said: "Our £14m figure is a conservative estimate -- the difference in revenues for ITV, between an England success and England failure, could be even more than that.
"The potential upside, however, is that if England stay in and audiences are buoyant, advertisers who have invested in the World Cup will enjoy record low prices for the world's biggest sporting event."
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