Mirror Group looks likely to have a new owner - probably a regional
newspaper publisher - by the middle of this year following the ousting
of its chief executive, David Montgomery, on Tuesday.
Montgomery’s resignation ended the battle between Mirror Group’s top
management and its shareholders, opening the way for a bidding war
between two newspaper groups, Trinity and Regional Independent
Media.
It is expected that Trinity - whose talks with Mirror Group collapsed
three weeks ago - will re-enter negotiations. Trinity, which made it
clear that Montgomery was a major obstacle to a deal, had made a
share-swap offer worth 160p a share. RIM’s offer, which has been
rejected, is in cash and values the company at pounds 913 million or
200p a share. It would also take on pounds 500 million of debt.
A Trinity spokesman said this week: ’We think Mirror Group’s
shareholders will be looking to choose between a quoted investment in a
strong well-financed media group, such as the Mirror-Trinity
combination, while getting the benefits of any synergies that would
arise from such a prospect, against being cashed out by a financial
buyer in the short term.’
While Trinity has said that all interested parties in Mirror Group would
’benefit from a little time while the dust settles’, City sources expect
talks to resume quickly.
Meanwhile RIM, backed by the private equity firm, Candover, is
continuing talks with Mirror Group. It is waiting for more detailed
financial information and could make a higher offer next week.
Montgomery, who in his resignation statement said it was ’an opportune
time to make this decision as the group now seems less likely to have an
independent future’, walked away with a pounds 1.35 million pay-off.
John Allwood, Mirror Group’s regional and Scottish director, and its
former finance director, has replaced him.
Montgomery’s departure followed a series of meetings between Mirror
Group’s executive and non-executive directors. Over the past few weeks,
the division between Montgomery, the Mirror Group chairman, Sir Victor
Blank, and the group’s largest shareholder, Phillips & Drew, over the
future of the company developed into a public feud, fuelling concern
that the media company’s image would be damaged. One media agency head
said: ’It’s another example of people washing their laundry in public.
Mirror Group does seem to be plagued with these very public
misdemeanours.’
Both Trinity and RIM would fit well with Mirror Group’s existing
business.
Paul Richards, a media analyst at Panmure Gordon, said: ’Trinity is
extremely appealing but if RIM can make a knockout bid with a cash
offer, some shareholders may prefer that.’
He added: ’Fund managers sometimes prefer cash bids because they can see
an instant return on investment. Alternatively, Phillips & Drew has
indicated that Mirror Group’s assets merged with Trinity’s would lead to
a significant re-rating by the stock market.’
Analysts say a merger is unlikely to be in place before June. It could
take a month before Mirror Group shareholders resolve whether they
should become part of a sell-out cash bid or a merged group, and an
investigation by the Monopolies and Mergers Commission could take
another three months.
The future of Mirror Group’s yet-to-be launched daily title, Sporting
Life, hangs in the balance. And, according to Richards, the future of
Live TV looks bleak. ’We will see a radical overhaul of the company
structure if it merges with Trinity or RIM. I wouldn’t be surprised to
see scaling back, starting with Live TV,’ he said.
If Trinity merges with Mirror Group, it is unclear how Trinity’s
regional sales house, Amra, will operate. Neil Hepburn, regional media
director at BMP OMD, said: ’I don’t see any other option than Mirror
Group’s regional titles moving into Amra.’
Jo Stead, the head of regional media at New PHD, added: ’If RIM or
Trinity merged with Mirror Group, it would be a very neat marketing
package.’
Hepburn echoed Stead’s view that a more diverse regional sales package
would be created for media buyers, but was concerned about Trinity’s
potential conflict with Mirror Group titles in Scotland. ’There is an
overlap with the Daily Record in Scotland and it might get sticky with
the MMC in central Scotland,’ he said.
MONTGOMERY AT MIRROR GROUP
October 1992: Brought in to revive the company’s fortunes
post-Maxwell
March 1994: Acquires stake in The Independent
September 1994: Takes 15 per cent stake in STV, later increased to 20
per cent
1995: Launches Live TV
January 1997: Puts pounds 16m into The Mirror’s relaunch
1997: Acquires Midland Independent Newspapers for pounds 297 million
December 1997: Buys Racing Post
January 1998: Sells The Mirror’s 46 per cent stake in The Independent to
Tony O’Reilly’s Independent Newspapers
June 1998: Closes Sporting Life
July 1998: Talks with Trinity break down as the German media group, Axel
Springer, emerges as an interested buyer. The discussions with Springer
end January 1999 Trinity re-opens talks and RIM then counters Trinity’s
offer. Montgomery turns down both offers and resigns shortly
afterwards.
BIDDERS
TRINITY NEWSPAPERS
Market share: Number one in the regional newspaper market with 12.7 per
cent share of the weekly market
Key titles: Trinity owns 121 titles, including Belfast Telegraph,
Liverpool Echo, Chester Chronicle and Newcastle’s Sunday Sun
Other media: Has a 20 per cent stake in Independent Radio Group; 13
specialised advertising magazines, including Micro Computer Mart,
Classic Car Mart, PC Mart and Computer Trade Only. Publishes regional
papers in the US through its Pennsylvania-based subsidiary, Gateway
Press, Buckeye Publishing in Ohio and East Central Communications in
Illinois
REGIONAL INDEPENDENT MEDIA
Market share: Sixth-largest player, with a 5.6 per cent share of the
weekly newspaper market, according to NS Marketing
Key titles: Yorkshire Post, Sheffield Star, Yorkshire Evening Post, West
Lancashire Evening Gazette.
Other media: 40 magazines including Yorkshire Business and The Northern
Biker
POSSIBLE REPORTED BIDDERS
The US magazine publishing company, Hearst Corporation, with backing
from the venture capital group, Compass Partners.The Barclay brothers,
who own the Scotsman and Sunday Business. The German publisher, Axel
Springer, could rekindle its interest.
MIRROR GROUP ASSETS
Newspapers: The Mirror, The Daily Record, The Racing Post, Sunday
Mirror, Sunday People, Sunday Mail
Regional newspapers: Fourth-largest player in the regional newspaper
market, according to NS Marketing, with ownership of 44 titles that
include Birmingham Evening Mail, Birmingham Post, Sunday Mercury,
Coventry Evening Telegraph, Derry Journal and Belfast News Letter
Other: Owns 34 specialist and trade magazines alongside ten regular
exhibitions
Television: Owns Live TV, City TV. Has 20 per cent stake in STV.