In 2000, when Britney did it again, Kylie was spinning around and Eminem introduced the real Slim Shady, Big Brother arrived on our screens and viewers were gripped by the antics of Nasty Nick. Fast forward seven years and it is showing signs of format fatigue. With early viewing figures for the eighth series indicating that the highly prized audience of 16- to 34-year-olds is switching off, Big Brother looks to be losing its appeal.
The show's audiences have been described as 'disappointing' by media buyers and its share of viewers in the key 16- to 34-year-old demographic has fallen 22% on last year. Combined with the fallout from the Celebrity Big Brother race row, the show's position as Channel 4's flagship cash cow is in serious danger.
'Everyone knows Channel 4 will eventually have to wean itself off Big Brother,' says Grant Millar, joint managing director of Vizeum. 'It is an amazing phenomenon that crosses all platforms, but it is inevitable that it will lose its appeal.'
Big Brother-bashing has become an annual event in the media calendar and the fact that commentators were forecasting its demise soon after the third series should not be ignored. Yet, while the show is gleefully controversial, criticism actually drives viewing, delivering a vital audience to its advertisers.
Earlier this month, Channel 4 deputy chairman Lord Puttnam declared that he was 'not proud' of Big Brother. Speaking at the Hay-On-Wye Festival he said: 'Big Brother accounts for 15% of the total revenue that keeps Channel 4 afloat - you have got to go some to replace that, but of course we will do at some point.'
Media agencies suggest that Channel 4's reliance on Big Brother is even greater, with some hinting that it accounts for up to 20% of its annual revenue. The broadcaster's decision to safeguard its deal with Endemol for a further three years at an annual cost of up to 拢40m is further testament to its importance.
But Nick Harper, director of Monkey Communications, says that Big Brother is losing its appeal with both advertisers and audience. 'People just don't have the time to invest in keeping up with Big Brother on TV when they can read about it in Heat and watch any scandal unfold on YouTube,' he says.
This view is echoed by Matt Waller, TV manager at Starcom, who believes the show has lost some of its appeal. 'There are peaks when scandals hit, but consumers dip in and out of it,' he says.
Many agency players believe that Channel 4 has become too reliant on Big Brother as an ad proposition, with investment restricting the exploration of new formats. 'Because Big Brother takes up so much of the schedules, there is little choice for advertisers,' says Mike Beecroft, TV group account director at Mediaedge:cia.
Channel 4 has tried to invigorate the show with psychology format Big Brother on the Couch and a move out of its poorly performing Saturday night slot. However, agencies say Big Brother spin-off shows on E4 have failed to make it into the top-15 multichannel shows in past weeks. One E4 repeat of Big Brother on the Couch was beaten by a BBC4 documentary about the Women's Institute.
Jim McDonald, head of broadcast at Media Planning Group, says that while the show remains a 'huge property' for Channel 4, retaining interest is challenging. 'There comes a point when whatever it does has been done before and there are no more taboos left to break,' he says.
The fact that ITV's Britain's Got Talent has trumped Big Brother in the ratings coupled with former Big Brother sponsor Carphone Warehouse's alignment with The X Factor could be evidence of a broader move. While there have been glib statements about a shift toward genuine talent rather than brazen fame-seeking, the reasons are clear to advertisers. As one media buyer puts it: 'No one is going to get fired for booking a spot in The X Factor, with its solid Saturday-night entertainment value.'
In stark contrast, some argue that Big Brother has more of the freak show about it, and as Harper suggests: 'It has become increasingly obvious that Big Brother has become all about getting a ticket to fame.'
Big Brother was always touted as a 'social experiment' and a mirror of society. It could be that the young audience Channel 4 craves is turning its back on the show simply because they don't like what they see.
DATA FILE - AVERAGE VIEWING FIGURES
All individuals 16-34s
000s Share (%) 000s Share (%)
2006 series 4435 19.8 1926 38.3
2007 series* 3668 16.9 1407 29.9
Change -767 -3.0 -519 -8.4
% change -17.3 -15.0 -26.9 -22.0
* Note: shows to 24/6/07