This week, barring a last-minute about-turn, Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) will have to announce that it is to find a new owner for one of the UK's biggest motor insurance businesses, which includes the heavily marketed Churchill and Direct Line brands.
The bank will not have done this through choice. As part of a deal between the European Commission and the UK government, RBS will have to shrink to a shadow of its current self. This will involve selling its insurance arm, alongside some of its RBS and NatWest retail bank branches in England, Scotland and Wales.
This might be good news for Paul Geddes, the respected chief executive of the insurance operations and a former marketing chief of Argos and Comet.
One of the likely options will be for RBS to arrange a separate stock-market listing for the business. Even conservative estimates would value it at a minimum of £5bn, which would propel it straight into the FTSE 100 index.
Certainly, that looks more likely than the sale of the business to an established player in the insurance market. The political implications of thousands of job losses, driven by a deal where a buyer would generate substantial cost-savings from the merging of business functions, would suggest that either a private-equity buyer or a standalone listing would be more sensible, particularly given that this would be a transaction forced by Brussels and Whitehall.
If Geddes could oversee such a move, perhaps in the process ensuring that the insurance arm's 18,000 employees were each given a small stake in the business, he would become one of only a few FTSE 100 company bosses with a strong background in marketing.
City headhunters say that one of the surprising features of the recession has been how few major companies have jettisoned their chief executives. Share-holders have not pushed as aggressively for change as might have been expected, largely because the recession has been so brutal that there were fears of causing yet more instability by replacing the individual at the top.
That does not mean, however, that there isn't an opportunity for ambitious marketers to position themselves to climb to the top rung of the corporate ladder.
Among others in the blue-chip ranks of Britain's top companies who might dare to have such aspirations are the likes of Gwyn Burr, customer director at Sainsbury's, and Euan Sutherland, chief executive of the UK operations of DIY retail group Kingfisher.
Neither company has a vacancy at the top at the moment. Justin King, Sainsbury's current boss, is rightly lauded in the City for his work turning around a business that was in chronic danger of sliding toward mediocrity when he took over nearly five years ago. Having been, understandably, linked with the top job at Marks & Spencer, he is, equally understandably, publicly lukewarm about its attractions, but it is far from impossible that he will succumb to the temptation of returning to his alma mater.
Similarly, Kingfisher group chief executive Ian Cheshire is unlikely to be going anywhere soon, but Sutherland would almost certainly be a candidate to succeed him when he does.
With marketers continuing to be under-represented in the boardrooms of major companies, it is crucial that industry bodies are lobbying harder than ever to change that.
The only way to ensure that the voice of the marketing director is being properly heard is to give it a hearing where it matters. The whole industry should be watching the shake-up at RBS with interest.
Mark Kleinman is City editor at Sky News and a columnist for The Times
30 seconds on the break-up of high-street banks
- Chancellor of the Exchequer Alastair Darling has con-firmed that along with RBS, Lloyds Banking Group and Northern Rock will be broken up and parts sold.
- The assets will reportedly be sold only to new entrants to the banking sector, rather than existing financial institutions, to encourage competition and growth.
- Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrat shadow chancellor, commented: 'There's no justification for a rapid sell-off of state assets in the current depressed environment, when the taxpayer will get a very poor deal.'
- Treasury select committee chairman and Labour MP John McFall agreed: 'It is important to ensure that we get taxpayer return. I'm relaxed about the timescale. I do not want to sell off at a cheap price.'
- The government still requires permission from European Competition Commissioner Neelie Kroes to break up the banks. 'My job is about acting as referee,' she said. 'I enforce the rules of the game and make sure it is fair.'