At the O2 last week, Prince sang that not only do you not have to be rich or cool to be his girl, you don't have to watch Big Brother either. The roar of approval from the crowd suggests that the reality-TV show is now officially out of vogue.
The latest series of the Channel 4 cash cow has not performed well, but some industry insiders believe that its waning popularity may be a positive development for the broadcaster, which has been accused of being over-reliant on the show. As part of a planned creative overhaul, Channel 4 has decided against a series of Celebrity Big Brother next year - a decision that has been taken as confirmation by many Big Brother bashers that the format has run its course - freeing up the broadcaster to take risks and air more original drama.
Adam Turner, broadcast director of PHD, says that while Channel 4 generally does a good job, there is room for more creative programming, 'Big Brother has lost its edge and you never hear anyone talking about it any more,' he says. 'But the fact remains that it still delivers on commercial impacts.' Indeed, analysis of Channel 4's highest-rating shows reveals that Big Brother took seven of its eight most popular slots.
Channel 4 head of programmes Julian Bellamy says the decision not to screen Celebrity Big Brother next year is 'the decision of a public-service broadcaster in search of the new and exciting. We would probably do two series of Celebrity Big Brother if ratings were all we were after.'
The broadcaster admits that its programming shake-up might substantially reduce its audience share and therefore its advertising revenue. Yet Kevin Lygo, Channel 4's director of TV and content, says it is much better to be an interesting channel with an 8% share than a less interesting one with 10%. Lygo describes the decisions as 'non-commercial', adding that it is quality shows that will ensure its survival.
Nevertheless, Jim McDonald, head of broadcast at Media Planning Group, predicts that the last has not been seen of Celebrity Big Brother, and that Big Brother as a franchise is here to stay. 'It remains a huge property, but it polarises opinion; people who don't watch it often actively hate it,' he says.
Critics have lambasted the show, describing it the modern equivalent of a medieval stocks or a public execution. Moreover, the fall-out from the Celebrity Big Brother race row has been used to argue that Channel 4 should not continue to receive public funding.
McDonald says the channel should not be singled out for criticism, as it has been a bad year for TV in general. 'The phone-line scandal means that all broadcasters have a job to do to restore public trust. Channel 4 was damaged by the Celebrity Big Brother race row, but the effect will not last.'
Agencies believe the proposed changes in programming may increase pressure on Channel 4's commercial operations. Andy Zonfrillo, investment director at MindShare, says that from an advertiser perspective, anything that reduces commercial impacts, and therefore puts up the price for advertisers, will not be welcomed.
His view is echoed by most broadcast directors, who argue that the loss of a raft of dependable shows such as Brat Camp will present the channel's commercial director, Andy Barnes, with a big challenge. Yet, despite the weak performance of Big Brother this year, Channel 4's overall summer revenue is actually up year on year, suggesting it is already becoming less reliant on the series.
As part of the planned shake-up, Channel 4 has pledged to spend less on acquired programming, attributing the decision to spiralling costs and diminishing returns. But PHD's Turner is convinced that buying in shows such as Sopranos will continue to be vital to its future health. 'We would like to see shows such as Heroes on Channel 4 and not the BBC,' he says.
Channel 4 has a strong heritage of commissioning and producing groundbreaking drama. Agencies point to the success of Skins, the teen drama that premiered on E4. But the fact it launched on E4 rather than Channel 4 is not lost on media buyers, who say that digital channels are diluting the audiences and output of the main terrestrial channels.
Whatever the programming changes, many agree with McDonald that Big Brother will remain a cornerstone of the schedule. Phil Wise, head of broadcast at Mediaedge:cia, says the fact remains that if Big Brother is taken away, something substantial that will attract the same audience has to be found to replace it. 'The format still has potential, but Channel 4 needs to do something clever with it and accept that running it for longer has not worked.'
Agencies are certainly being presented with something of a conundrum. On the one hand, they demand big shows that deliver mass young audiences; on the other, there is a genuine demand for high-quality, niche audiences, which are attracted by a very different type of programming.
While agencies may congratulate Channel 4 for taking risks, there is no doubt it will feel the squeeze if commercial impacts decline. It clearly believes it is a risk worth taking, and when the alternative is more copycat programming, it should be a prudent move.