Indications are that the current economic cycle has bottomed out and that 2003 will see a 4% increase in media budgets and a 5% increase in marketing budgets, according to Billetts Media Consulting's advertiser insights survey.
However, ITV1's share of the market is forecast to drop from 54% to 51%.
Billetts' chief executive Andy Pearch said this loss could translate to a 1% fall in revenue.
As more viewers turn to multi-channel TV, especially given the early success of Freeview, Five and Sky continue to offer ad slots at nearly half the price of ITV. "2003 will be the crunch year for ITV. It needs to make more programmes that appeal to young adults," Pearch said.
Billetts, whose clients spend £2bn on media annually, has a customer base that covers 41% of the top 250 UK TV advertisers. It predicts that while multi-channel will see a 16% rise in viewers ITV1 will experience a 5% fall, Channel 4 a 2% fall and Five a rise of 4%. In revenue terms, multi-channel providers such as Sky will enjoy a 21% hike according to the report. Of the terrestrial channels, Five is expected to experience a 10% rise and Channel 4 a 3% increase.
Pearch added that the market can expect to see advertisers, especially those in the financial services arena, pull spend out of press and pump more into DRTV.
"TV stations share concern that DRTV creates a cluttered environment and diminishes brand advertising," Pearch said.
He feels that the broadcasters may respond by putting up prices. "The increased optimism among advertisers is potentially important. TV's resilience is quite impressive. I think that within TV there has been a shift in power from ITV to Sky and that is coming though strongly in revenue."
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