ITV1 ad revenues to fall 4.8% this year according to forecast

LONDON - Poor viewing figures at ITV1 could lead to advertising revenues falling by 4.8% to £1.59bn, media planning and buying agency ZenithOptimedia has forecast.

The agency forecast a further decline in 2006, with the figure dropping back to £1.53bn, compared with £1.67bn in 2004. It said that ITV saw growth in its digital channels, with brand extensions such as 'Footballers' Wives Extra Time' bringing in big audiences for ITV2.

Overall, ZenithOptimedia has cut its 2005 television adspend growth forecast back to 1.5%, blaming in part the sluggish state of high-street sales.

Looking farther ahead, ZenithOptimedia said the World Cup in 2006 would stimulate extra growth, but without a revival in retail sales this would be moderate.

It anticipates growth of 4.3% in 2006, and between 2007 and 2010 it sees television adspend growing annually by 4% to 5%.

"This may seem implausible in the face of the threat to television advertising posed by personal video recorders, but this threat is counterbalanced by the boost to commercial viewing provided by the spread of digital television," the company said.

The figures were revealed today in ZenithOptimedia's UK Television Forecasts. The report also says that it believes that Five's audience share has peaked and its share of advertising budgets has reached a plateau -- although it could change this by acquiring or forming partnerships with other broadcasters.

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