Colin Grimshaw, deputy editor of Media Week
Colin Grimshaw, deputy editor of Media Week
A view from Colin Grimshaw

The ITV 'turnaround' talk has yet to be justified

It takes a certain chutzpah to put a positive gloss on a 35% fall in profits. But then Michael Grade has never been found wanting in this department.

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In truth, the 2007 ITV profit performance cannot be blamed on Grade. The premium rate telephone debacle and the failure of the content division to hit revenue targets - important factors in the £188m profit decline - are problems whose cause preceded him.

But then, he shouldn't be claiming credit for the apparent improvement in audience and advertising figures either, as he did with his "our turnaround is on track" and "we have absolutely stopped the decline at ITV1" boasts, which may yet haunt him.

For, the key factors behind these improvements may not be repeated. What was hidden among Grade's barnstorming performance was that easily the biggest reason for the improved commercial impacts performance on ITV1 - a 3.3% loss in share compared to a 10.5% loss in 2006 - was down to the axing of kids' programmes from the daytime schedule and their replacement with old episodes of Morse, a one-off boost to the year-on-year ratings comparison.

And Channel 4, as a rival for eyeballs, is unlikely to repeat the stinker of a year it had in 2007, even if Big Brother again fails to excite.

So, for Grade's "turnaround" to continue, ITV1 will need to demonstrate real improvements in its programming this year. And the early portents are not great. Rock Rivals was the latest new drama to disappoint, debuting with 3.9 million viewers. With so few successes in the new 9pm drama slot, the decision to restore News at Ten is looking ever more suspect.

The best of the new shows, Moving Wallpaper, has suffered from poor scheduling, on a Friday night, when much of its potential audience is busily social networking, down the pub. The Beeb would have nurtured it on BBC2, before exposing it to the ratings glare of the main channel.

But we shouldn't be too querulous. At least ITV now has the confidence to experiment, and the return of England international and FA Cup football next season is a bonus.

Incoming programming boss Peter Fincham now needs to convert some of this experimentation into sure-fire success if turnaround talk is to be justified.

Colin Grimshaw is the deputy editor of Media Week
colin.grimshaw@haymarket.com

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