Free regional newspaper circulations remained largely flat during the second half of 2007, according to the latest set of figures from the Audit Bureau of Circulation (ABC).
However, the lack of movement is unsurprising, given the nature of ABC sampling, which currently takes into account only door-to-door deliveries and not picked up copies. Publishers would be hard-pressed to turn circulation on and off like a tap within any six-month period, constrained by the cost of doing so and by ABC rules requiring consistent deliveries.
But the apparent stability belies a greater truth: that the traditional freesheet model is under threat, from the explosion in online news, fragmented media consumption and cultural changes.
The challenges are no different to those faced by paid-for regional titles - whose circulations continue to decline - or by national newspapers. The one key exception is that the regional press model is advertising, rather than circulation-driven. So the headline figures matter less than creating a responsive audience for advertisers.
Declining response
Regional specialist agency BLM Clilverd has noticed a decline in response to ads placed in traditional regional freesheets, at a rate commensurate with, if not faster than, their paid-for cousins. Business director Katy Sears says advertisers worry that copies are not being read and that deliveries are patchy.
Johnston Press, publisher of paid-for title the Yorkshire Post, as well as nearly 200 local, free home-delivered newsletters, last week reported a 6.3% slowdown in pre-tax profits, and warned of a "challenging" press ad market ahead.
Digital revenues, however, were up 34%, to £15.1m, echoing the general consensus that ABC figures no longer provide an accurate picture of total audience reach. Trinity Mirror's new measurement tool has shown that its regional websites add an additional 10% unduplicated reach to its entire print and digital portfolio in the UK. Like the national titles, the majority of regional newspapers have invested heavily in online editions, although press buyers say there is a huge variation in quality.
Digital innovation aside, one answer to the flagging freesheet model is the part paid-for, part-free model pioneered by the Manchester Evening News. The MEN adopted the hybrid model in May 2006, with the title distributed free in the city centre, and was quickly followed by the Liverpool Daily Post and then by the Reading Evening Post.
This strategy, which Mediaedge:cia's regional director Fiona Hodges describes as "tremendously brave", has certainly boosted ad revenues.
In the first year since it changed tack, MEN posted an 8% increase in national ad revenues and, across 12 months in 2007, the Liverpool Daily Post posted a 16% increase. According to independent research conducted six months after the launch of the Liverpool paper's free copies, more than half of those picking up the paper were new readers, half were aged 25 to 44, and 87% fell into the lucrative ABC1 category.
BLM Clilverd's Sears says the picked-up freesheets deliver raw quantity in terms of reach and delivery, as well as more of the right demographic: young and affluent readers who might otherwise fall out of the market. Crucially, she says, they are choosing to read these titles, and much more readily than the weekly freesheets beloved of their parents' and grandparents' generations.
The consensus among press buyers is that the new free model will continue to grow, along with readers' expectations that they can pick up quality content for free. That said, the quality and variety of editorial remains paramount.
Quality control
The Liverpool Daily Post, for instance, recently launched a bimonthly glossy business magazine, as well as a radio show and social networking site. And, as Sue Davenport, head of regional press at MediaVest Manchester, insists, publishers must take care not to dilute the quality of their paid-for offering.
Of course, going free, if only in part, is no easy solution; nor will it suit all titles. ABC director Martyn Gates says a major consideration is the cost of a proper distribution strategy. And not every city lends itself to free pick-up points.
Lawrie Proctor, managing director of independent sales house MediaForce, explains: "London is unique in that you've got a huge number of people passing through a relatively narrow funnel. That might work well in Liverpool, but I can't see it working in Melton Mowbray."
It's all about eyes on pages, or more precisely, eyes on ads. Only three out of some 1,200 regional titles have adopted the hybrid model up to now, but early indications suggest it is an option well worth considering.
TO BE FREE OR NOT TO BE FREE?
GEORGINA HARVEY, managing director, regional newspapers, Trinity Mirror - "The future of the free model will continue to be driven by consumer needs and lifestyle requirements. Across the industry, the future will see a combination of free models, part paid and part free, racked distribution, vended distribution, and door-to-door distribution"
SUE DAVENPORT, head of regional press, MediaVest Manchester - "The hybrid paid/free strategy is not without risk. Publishers must ensure they do not dilute the main strengths of regional dailies, which have historically been quality of targeting and readership. This is more difficult to control using mass free distribution methods within the city centre"
KATY SEARS, business director, BLM Clilverd - "Traditional suburban and rural readers may be happy to receive their news weekly. By taking the best of the daily product, this route could maintain good weekly revenue".