Dawn Airey, who is expect-ed to make her return to Five as chairman and chief executive next month, may be capable of many things, but even her most ardent supporters - of which there are many - would hesitate to claim that she can perform miracles. Yet an ability to turn a sow's ear into a silk purse will prove useful if she is to succeed where others have failed and provide advertisers with a compelling reason to use the channel.
This is a problem Five has long wrestled with, says Andy Smith, head of TV at marketing agency Billetts. 'The challenge is the same as it has been for a decade: in terms of communication and cost, what does Five add to the schedule for advertisers, given the alternatives available to them?' he says.
Although its current period of instability is one shared by the entire commercial TV market, Five is suffering more than most, and there are other issues, particularly with regard to programming, that it must address. With an all-day viewing-time share of just 4.8%, Five is having its worst summer in a decade. On five occasions during the season, it has also suffered the indignity of having lower peak-time ratings than digital-only channel ITV2.
Five has never lost its reliance on a few programme formats, particularly US acquisitions. With signs suggesting that viewers are tiring of the CSI franchise, this needs addressing fast. CSI episodes occupy all this year's top 10 programme positions on the channel, and 24 of the top 25. This is particularly troubling as the show's ratings have dropped 4.6% year-on-year, while CSI: NY is down 6.3% in the key 16-34 market.
Its acquisition of Neighbours has boosted Five's daytime performance, although some critics have suggested that, rather than attracting new audiences, it has simply meant that those who already watched Home & Away now watch the channel for longer.
Some credit must be given to Airey's predecessor, Jane Lighting, who tried to rectify the situation by putting substantial marketing clout behind two flagship commissions - Banged Up, a juvenile crime and rehabilitation reality show featuring former home secretary David Blunkett, and a rehash of family-friendly 70s classic Superstars.
In the end, neither has reversed Five's fortunes. Superstars launched with 1.3m viewers, but by the end of the series audiences had dropped by 30%. Meanwhile, Banged Up launched with 900,000 viewers, but this audience dropped with every episode until the show's exit, by which time it had lost 20% of its original viewers.
The broadcaster's digital channels, Fiver (formerly Five Life) and Five US have now started to gain audience, albeit from a low base. There is some evidence that the rebranding started by marketing controller Carl Ratcliffe
is starting to pay dividends, although digital-only channels can rarely charge a premium for advertising. There is also considerable pressure for the delayed relaunch of Five US, and, more particularly, the core channel, to be a success. What does Five stand for and what is the identity that can different-iate it and make it an essential part of media schedules? These are the key questions that Smith believes have yet to be answered.
Channel owner RTL has pledged to increase Five's programming budget, despite the downturn in the TV ad market, and the challenge is to convert this into something meaningful. Airey's previous tenure at the broad-caster was marked with audience growth as the channel established itself, but this faltered soon afterward. Her challenge now is to put Five back on an upward trajectory.